Background More intense and longer‐lasting heat events are expected in the United States as a consequence of climate change. This study aimed to project the potential changes in maternal heat exposure during early pregnancy (3–8 weeks post conception) and the associated burden of congenital heart defects ( CHD s) in the future. Methods and Results This study expanded on a prior nationwide case‐control study that evaluated the association between CHD s and maternal heat exposure during early pregnancy in summer and spring. We defined multiple indicators of heat exposure, and applied published odds ratios obtained for the matching season of the baseline (1995–2005) into the projection period (2025–2035) to estimate potential changes in CHD burden throughout the United States. Increases in maternal heat exposure were projected across the United States and to be larger in the summer. The Midwest will potentially have the highest increase in summer maternal exposure to excessively hot days (3.42; 95% CI, 2.99–3.88 per pregnancy), heat event frequency (0.52; 95% CI, 0.44–0.60) and heat event duration (1.73; 95% CI, 1.49–1.97). We also found large increases in specific CHD subtypes during spring, including a 34.0% (95% CI, 4.9%–70.8%) increase in conotruncal CHD in the South and a 38.6% (95% CI , 9.9%–75.1%) increase in atrial septal defect in the Northeast. Conclusions Projected increases in maternal heat exposure could result in an increased CHD burden in certain seasons and regions of the United States.
Nitrogen oxides (NO x ) are important components of ambient and indoor air pollution and are emitted from a range of combustion sources, including on-road mobile sources, electric power generators, and non-road mobile sources. While anthropogenic sources dominate, NO x is also formed by lightning strikes and wildland fires and is also emitted by soil. Reduced nitrogen (e.g., ammonia, NH 3 ) is also emitted by various sources, including fertilizer application and animal waste decomposition. Nitrogen oxides, ozone (O 3 ) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution related to atmospheric emissions of nitrogen (N) and other pollutants can cause premature death and a variety of serious health effects. Climate change is expected to impact how N-related pollutants affect human health. For example, changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are projected to both lengthen the O 3 season and intensify high O 3 episodes in some areas. Other climate-related changes may increase the atmospheric release of N compounds through impacts on wildfire regimes, soil emissions, and biogenic emissions from terrestrial ecosystems. This paper examines the potential human health implications of climate change and N cycle interactions related to ambient air pollution.
Epidemiological analyses of air quality often estimate human exposure from ambient monitoring data, potentially leading to exposure misclassification and subsequent bias in estimated health risks. To investigate this, we conducted a case-crossover study of summertime ambient ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) levels and daily respiratory hospitalizations in New York City during 2001-2005. Comparisons were made between associations estimated using two pollutant exposure metrics: observed concentrations and predicted exposures from the EPA's Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model. Small, positive associations between interquartile range mean ozone concentrations and hospitalizations were observed and were strongest for 0-day lags (hazard ratio (HR)=1.013, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.998, 1.029) and 3-day lags (HR=1.006, 95% CI: 0.991, 1.021); applying mean predicted ozone exposures yielded similar results. PM(2.5) was also associated with admissions, strongest at 2- and 4-day lags, with few differences between exposure metrics. Subgroup analyses support recognized sociodemographic differences in concentration-related hospitalization risk, whereas few inter-stratum variations were observed in relation to SHEDS exposures. Predicted exposures for these spatially homogenous pollutants were similar across sociodemographic strata, therefore SHEDS predictions coupled with the case-crossover design may have masked observable heterogeneity in risks. However, significant effect modification was found for subjects in the top exposure-to-concentration ratio tertiles, suggesting risks may increase as a consequence of infiltration or greater exposure to outdoor air.
To date, only a limited number of studies have examined the impact of ambient pollutant policy on respiratory morbidities. This accountability study examined the effect of a regional pollution control policy, namely, the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) Budget Trading Program (NBP), on respiratory health in New York State (NYS). Time-series analysis using generalized additive models was applied to assess changes in daily hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in NYS after the implementation of the NBP policy. Respiratory end points in the summers during the baseline period (1997-2000) were compared with those during the post-intervention period (2004-2006). Stratified analyses were also conducted to examine whether health impacts of the NBP differed by socio-demographic, regional, or clinical characteristics. Following the implementation of EPA's NBP policy, there were significant reductions in mean ozone levels (-2% to -9%) throughout NYS. After adjusting for time-varying variables, PM(2.5) concentration, and meteorological factors, significant post-intervention declines in respiratory admissions were observed in the Central (-10.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): -14.18, -6.01), Lower Hudson (-11.05, 95% CI: -16.54, -5.19), and New York City Metro regions (-5.71, 95% CI: -7.39, -4.00), consistent with wind trajectory patterns. Stratified analyses suggest that admissions for asthma, chronic airway obstruction, among those 5-17 years old, self-payers, Medicaid-covered, and rural residents declined the most post-NBP. This study suggests that the NO(x) control policy may have had a positive impact on both air pollution levels statewide and respiratory health in some NYS regions. However, the effect varied by disease subgroups, region, and socio-demographic characteristics.
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