This work documents the first version of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) new EnergyExascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). We focus on the standard resolution of the fully coupled physical model designed to address DOE mission-relevant water cycle questions. Its components include atmosphere and land (110-km grid spacing), ocean and sea ice (60 km in the midlatitudes and 30 km at the equator and poles), and river transport (55 km) models. This base configuration will also serve as a foundation for additional configurations exploring higher horizontal resolution as well as augmented capabilities in the form of biogeochemistry and cryosphere configurations. The performance of E3SMv1 is evaluated by means of a standard set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima simulations consisting of a long preindustrial control, historical simulations (ensembles of fully coupled and prescribed SSTs) as well as idealized CO 2 forcing simulations. The model performs well overall with biases typical of other CMIP-class models, although the simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weaker than many CMIP-class models. While the E3SMv1 historical ensemble captures the bulk of the observed warming between preindustrial (1850) and present day, the trajectory of the warming diverges from observations in the Key Points: • This work documents E3SMv1, the first version of the U.S. DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model • The performance of E3SMv1 is documented with a set of standard CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations comprising nearly 3,000 years • E3SMv1 has a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (5.3 K) and strong aerosol-related effective radiative forcing (-1.65 W/m 2 ) Correspondence to: Chris Golaz, golaz1@llnl.gov Citation: Golaz, J.-C., Caldwell, P. M., Van Roekel, L. P., Petersen, M. R., Tang, Q., Wolfe, J. D., et al. (2019). The DOE E3SM coupled model version 1: Overview and evaluation at standard resolution. second half of the twentieth century with a period of delayed warming followed by an excessive warming trend. Using a two-layer energy balance model, we attribute this divergence to the model's strong aerosol-related effective radiative forcing (ERF ari+aci = −1.65 W/m 2 ) and high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS = 5.3 K). Plain Language Summary The U.S. Department of Energy funded the development of a new state-of-the-art Earth system model for research and applications relevant to its mission. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) consists of five interacting components for the global atmosphere, land surface, ocean, sea ice, and rivers. Three of these components (ocean, sea ice, and river) are new and have not been coupled into an Earth system model previously. The atmosphere and land surface components were created by extending existing components part of the Community Earth System Model, Version 1. E3SMv1's capabilities are demonstrated by performing a set of standardized simulation experiments described by...

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In an attempt to advance the understanding of the Earth's weather and climate by representing deep convection explicitly, we present a global, four-month simulation (November 2018 to February 2019) with ECMWF's hydrostatic Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at an average grid spacing of 1.4 km. The impact of explicitly simulating deep convection on the atmospheric circulation and its variability is assessed by comparing the 1.4 km simulation to the equivalent well-tested and calibrated global simulations at 9 km grid spacing with and without parametrized deep convection. The explicit simulation of deep convection at 1.4 km results in a realistic large-scale circulation, better representation of convective storm activity, and stronger convective gravity wave activity when compared to the 9 km simulation with parametrized deep convection. Comparison of the 1.4 km simulation to the 9 km simulation without parametrized deep convection shows that switching off deep convection parametrization at a too coarse resolution (i.e., 9 km) generates too strong convective gravity waves. Based on the limited statistics available, improvements to the Madden-Julian Oscillation or tropical precipitation are not observed at 1.4 km, suggesting that other Earth system model components and/or their interaction are important for an accurate representation of these processes and may well need adjusting at deep convection resolving resolutions. Overall, the good agreement of the 1.4 km simulation with the 9 km simulation with parametrized deep convection is remarkable, despite one of the most fundamental parametrizations being turned off at 1.4 km resolution and despite no adjustments being made to the remaining parametrizations. Plain Language Summary We present the world's first global simulation of an entire season of the Earth's atmosphere with 1.4 km average grid spacing and the top of the modeled atmosphere as high as 80 km. Albeit only a single realization due to its considerable computational cost, the resulting model output provides a reference and guidance for future simulations. For illustration we compare to simulations at 9 km grid spacing that represent the state of the art in numerical weather prediction and are still considerably finer when compared to models that are used for climate projections today. Thanks to its unprecedented detail, the simulation output will support future model development and satellite mission planning and may be seen as a prototype contribution to a future digital twin of our Earth.

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics‐based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama‐Coosa‐Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms, were conducted. The depth‐area‐duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981–2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021–2050 near‐future and 44% in the 2071–2100 far‐future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserve more in‐depth examination.

Precipitation extremes have tangible societal impacts. Here, we assess if current state of the art global climate model simulations at high spatial resolutions (0.35 • x0.35 • ) capture the observed behavior of precipitation extremes in the past few decades over the continental US. We design a correlation-based regionalization framework to quantify precipitation extremes, where samples of extreme events for a grid box may also be drawn from neighboring grid boxes with statistically equal means and statistically significant temporal correlations. We model precipitation extremes with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution fits to time series of annual maximum precipitation. Non-stationarity of extremes is captured by including a timedependent parameter in the GEV distribution. Our analysis reveals that the high-resolution model substantially improves the simulation of stationary precipitation extreme statistics particularly over the Northwest Pacific coastal region and the Southeast US. Observational data exhibits significant non-stationary behavior of extremes only over some parts of the Western US, with declining trends in the extremes. While the high resolution simulations improve upon the low resolution model in simulating this non-stationary behavior, the trends are statistically significant only over some of those regions.

This study integrates machine learning and particle-resolved aerosol simulations to develop emulators that predict sub-micron aerosol mixing state indices from the Earth System Model (ESM) simulations. The emulators predict aerosol mixing state using only ESM bulk aerosol species concentrations, which do not by themselves carry mixing state information. Here we used PartMC as the particle-resolved model and NCAR's CESM as the ESM. We trained emulators for three different mixing state indices for sub-micron aerosol in terms of chemical species abundance (χa), the mixing of optically absorbing and non-absorbing species (χo), and the mixing of hygroscopic and non-hygroscopic species (χh). Our global mixing state maps show that there is considerable spatial and seasonal variability in mixing state indices, ranging between 23% and 96% for χa, between 49% and 95% for χo, and between 19% and 90% for χh, with averages of 76%, 75%, and 63%, respectively. High values in one index can be consistent with low values in another index depending on the grouping of species and their relative abundance, meaning that each mixing state index captures different aspects of the population mixing state. Although a direct validation with observational data has not been possible yet, our results are consistent with mixing state index values derived from ambient observations. This work is a prototypical example of using machine learning emulators to add information to ESM simulations.

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To better understand error and spatial variability sources of soil moisture simulated with land surface models, observed and simulated values of soil moisture (using offline simulations with the Noah land surface model with four soil layers and approximately 1-km horizontal grid spacing) were compared. This comparison between observed and modeled daily values of soil moisture was performed over the Lower Mississippi Delta region during summer-fall months 2004-06. The Noah simulations covered the 2.5°ϫ 2.5°latitude-longitude domain and were forced by the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) atmospheric forcing fields. Hourly soil moisture measurements and other data, including local meteorological and soil physical properties data from 12 Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) sites, were used. The results show that both the observed and simulated level of soil moisture depend critically on the specified-sampled soil texture. Soil types with a relatively high observed clay content (more than 50% of weight) retain more water as a result of low water diffusivity than silty-sandy soils with 20% or less clay, provided that other conditions are the same. This fact is in agreement with previous studies and implies a strong soil texture control (through related hydraulic parameters) on the accuracy of simulated soil moisture. Sensitivity tests using the Noah model were performed to assess the effect of using the hydraulic parameters related to the site-specific soil texture on soil moisture quality. Indeed, at some SCAN sites, the errors (root-mean-square difference and bias) were reduced. Simulated soil moisture showed at least a 50% reduction when the site-specific soil texture was used in Noah simulations compared to those derived from the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) data. The most significant improvement of simulated soil moisture was observed within the top 0-10 cm layer where an original positive bias (an excessive wetness) was almost eliminated. Meanwhile, excessive dryness (negative soil moisture bias), which was dominant within the second and third model layers, was also reduced. These improvements are expected to be valid at sites/ regions with low (Ͻ0.3) vegetation fraction.