Based on the performed researches the method of decomposition of graphs of total electric loading of power system with application of a method of Hilbert-Huang is improved. This approach allows obtaining a homogeneous basic component of electrical load and temperature component, which has a close correlation with air temperature, which improves the accuracy of short-term forecasting. The results of testing the developed mathematical model are given. Ref. 9, fig. 1, table.
The urgency of the problem of short-term forecasting of electricity imbalances in the conditions of the modern electricity market of Ukraine is substantiated. A comparison of the results of forecasting daily graphs of electricity imbalances using autoregressive models ARIMA, VARMA and developed on their basis combined models with the influence of predicted values of generation of renewable sources. Analysis of the obtained results shows that the VARMA vector autoregression model has accurate results. References 11, figures 2, tables 2.
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