To assimilate the thermohaline parameters' pseudo-measurements in the model, applied is the method of adaptive statistics, the characteristic feature of which consists in adjusting the three-dimensional errors' dispersions of the temperature and salinity forecast to the water circulation in the basin. The three-dimensional fields of the temperature and salinity pseudo-measurements are reconstructed in the 100-500 m layer based on the altimetry data and the Argo buoys' limited measurements. The method is approved and validated by comparing the sea fields reconstructed in the reanalysis for 2012 with the Argo measurements. It is revealed that on the horizons 100, 113 and 125 m, the dispersions of differences (residuals) between the temperature pseudo-measurements and its model values somewhat exceed the model dispersion; whereas on the horizons within the 150-500 m layer, they are smaller. The daily standard deviation of the model level (relative to that reconstructed using the altimetry data) is smaller than the deviation calculated in the forecast; and during the March -September period, it is lower than the standard deviation resulted from the pseudo-measurements' assimilation by the simplified method. Resolution of the mesoscale vortices in the currents' fields is higher in case the method of adaptive statistics is used.
We propose an algorithm of adaptive statistics of prognostic errors aimed at the assimilation of the climatic temperature and salinity fields in a model of dynamics of the sea. The algorithm is used for the numerical solution of the proposed differential equations for the dispersions of prognostic errors of temperature and salinity. The sources in the equations of advective diffusion of heat and salt depend on the four-dimensional dispersions of prognostic errors and one-dimensional (along the vertical coordinate) dispersions of measurement errors. The dispersions of prognostic errors are corrected at the times of assimilation of the data. We perform the reconstruction and analysis of the climatic fields of currents in the Black Sea. It is shown that the structure of the fields of dispersions in the upper mixed layer is determined by the vertical diffusion. Below this layer, the distribution of dispersions depends on the vertical advection. The algorithm of adaptive statistics of prognostic errors allows us to reconstruct the improved mutually adapted hydrophysical parameters with regard for the dynamics of the dispersions of errors.
We compare the thermohaline and dynamic characteristics of the Black Sea reconstructed by using two versions of climatic temperature and salinity fields: old and new . The fields are reconstructed with the help of continuous assimilation of the climatic temperature and salinity in the model. It is shown that the climatic thermohaline fields constructed with regard for the data of observations for the last 20 yr are characterized by an insignificant elevation of the halocline (pycnocline) in the winter-spring period and the elevation of the upper boundary of the cold intermediate layer in the spring-summer period. The intensity of surface geostrophic currents is greater than the same quantity computed on the basis of the old climatic data for the whole year. The horizontal currents in the sea computed according to the new climatic data are more intense.
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