This study investigated the sensitivity of managed boreal forests to climate change, with consequent needs to adapt the management to climate change. Model simulations representing the Finnish territory between 60 and 70° N showed that climate change may substantially change the dynamics of managed boreal forests in northern Europe. This is especially probable at the northern and southern edges of this forest zone. In the north, forest growth may increase, but the special features of northern forests may be diminished. In the south, climate change may create a suboptimal environment for Norway spruce. Dominance of Scots pine may increase on less fertile sites currently occupied by Norway spruce. Birches may compete with Scots pine even in these sites and the dominance of birches may increase. These changes may reduce the total forest growth locally but, over the whole of Finland, total forest growth may increase by 44%, with an increase of 82% in the potential cutting drain. The choice of appropriate species and reduced rotation length may sustain the productivity of forest land under climate change.

Clinically pertinent coeliac disease exists despite normal small-bowel mucosal villous architecture. Mucosal transglutaminase 2-specific IgA deposits can be utilized in detecting such patients with genetic gluten intolerance.

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Using the Finnish MELA model, a set of scenarios were produced and used to map the possibilities and risks surrounding the utilisation of peatlands in wood production in Finland. One of the scenarios was an estimate of allowable-cut calculated by maximising the net present value of the future revenues using a four per cent interest rate subject to non-decreasing flow of wood, saw logs and net income over a 50-year period, and net present value after the 50 year period greater or equal than in the beginning. The estimate for maximum regionally sustained removal in 1996-2005 was 68 million m 3 per year -approaching 74 million m 3 during the next decades. In this scenario, 14 per cent of all cuttings during the period 1996-2005 would be made on peatlands, which comprise ca. 31 per cent of the total area of forestry land. By the year 2025, the proportion of peatland cuttings would increase to over 20 per cent. The increase in future cutting possibilities on peatlands compensated for a temporary decrease in cuttings and growing stock on mineral soils. The allowable-cut effect was especially pronounced in northern Finland, where peatlands play an important role in wood production. In addition, the sensitivity of cutting possibilities for assumptions related to growth and price were analysed. The estimate of maximum sustainable yield as defined here seems to be fairly robust on the whole, except in northern Finland where the cutting scenarios were sensitive to the changes in the price of birch pulpwood. The proportion of peatland stands that are profitable for timber production depends on the interest rate: the higher the rate of interest the less peatland stands are thinned. The effect of cutting profile on future logging conditions and resulting costs were analysed in two forestry centres. If clear cuttings on mineral soils are to be cut first, an increase in future logging costs is inevitable.

In this work the aim was to determine how carbon sequestration in the growing stock of trees in Finland is dependent on the forest management and increased production potential due to climate change. This was analysed for the period 2003-2053 using forest inventory data and the forestry model MELA. Four combinations of two climate change and two management scenarios were studied: current (CU) and gradually warming (CC) climate and forest management strategies corresponding to diVerent rates of utilisation of the cutting potential, namely maximum sustainable removal (Sust) or maximum net present value (NPV) of wood production (Max). In this analysis of Finland, the initial amount of carbon in the growing stock was 765 Mt (2,802 Tg CO 2 ). At the end of the simulation, the carbon in the growing stock of trees in Finland had increased to 894 Mt (3,275 Tg CO 2 ) under CUSust, 906 Mt (3,321 Tg CO 2 ) under CUMax, 1,060 Mt (3,885 Tg CO 2 ) under CCSust and 1,026 Mt (3,758 Tg CO 2 ) under CCMax. The results show that future development of carbon in the growing stock is not only dependent on climate change scenarios but also on forest management. For example, maximising the NPV of wood production without sustainability constraints results, over the short term, in a large amount of wood obtained in regeneration cuttings and a consequent decrease in the amount of carbon in growing stock. Over the longer term, this decrease in the carbon of growing stock in regenerated forests is compensated by the subsequent increase in fast-growing young forests. By comparison, no drastic short-term decrease in carbon stock was found in the Sust scenarios; only minor decreases were observed.

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The aim of this study was to analyze the occurrence of butt rot damage to Norway spruce in different parts of southern Finland and to quantify the associated loss of quality. The data used in the study are from the 9th National Forest Inventory and consist of 5998 sample plots and 8007 spruce sample trees of saw-timber size. To predict the probability of damage to stands and trees, logistic regression models were constructed. Separate models were made for the whole study area, for the area where the general risk of Heterobasidion root and butt rot damage is high and for the area where the damage frequency is relatively low. In the highrisk area, the probability of damage decreased with increasing elevation and increased with increasing temperature sum. In addition, damage was more common on fertile sites and less common on peatlands; and thick peat layer decreased the risk of damage. The probability of damage was also higher in stands where special or selective cuttings had been carried out. In the sample tree data, the probability of damage increased slightly with increasing diameter and age of the tree. In the low-risk areas, elevation was the only variable that explained the probability of damage to a spruce tree. Site fertility and previous cuttings (more than ten years ago) explained the probability of damage to stands only weakly. For spruce damaged by butt rot, the saw-timber volume was reduced, on average, by 60% both in the high-risk area and in the low-risk area.