The role of peatlands in Finnish wood production – an analysis based on large-scale forest scenario modelling

Abstract

Using the Finnish MELA model, a set of scenarios were produced and used to map the possibilities and risks surrounding the utilisation of peatlands in wood production in Finland. One of the scenarios was an estimate of allowable-cut calculated by maximising the net present value of the future revenues using a four per cent interest rate subject to non-decreasing flow of wood, saw logs and net income over a 50-year period, and net present value after the 50 year period greater or equal than in the beginning. The estimate for maximum regionally sustained removal in 1996-2005 was 68 million m 3 per year -approaching 74 million m 3 during the next decades. In this scenario, 14 per cent of all cuttings during the period 1996-2005 would be made on peatlands, which comprise ca. 31 per cent of the total area of forestry land. By the year 2025, the proportion of peatland cuttings would increase to over 20 per cent. The increase in future cutting possibilities on peatlands compensated for a temporary decrease in cuttings and growing stock on mineral soils. The allowable-cut effect was especially pronounced in northern Finland, where peatlands play an important role in wood production. In addition, the sensitivity of cutting possibilities for assumptions related to growth and price were analysed. The estimate of maximum sustainable yield as defined here seems to be fairly robust on the whole, except in northern Finland where the cutting scenarios were sensitive to the changes in the price of birch pulpwood. The proportion of peatland stands that are profitable for timber production depends on the interest rate: the higher the rate of interest the less peatland stands are thinned. The effect of cutting profile on future logging conditions and resulting costs were analysed in two forestry centres. If clear cuttings on mineral soils are to be cut first, an increase in future logging costs is inevitable.

Multi-source forest inventory data for forest production and utilization analyses at different levels

“…The traditional objective is to assess future felling potentials at the national or regional scale (e.g. Salminen and Salminen 1998;Nuutinen et al 2000;2007a). However, the forestry scenario models are continuously developed to better meet the emerging information needs and expectations from diverse stakeholders.…”

“…Eid and Hobbelstad 2000;Eid et al 2002;Nuutinen et al 2000;2007a;Eriksson et al 2007;Matala et al 2009;. In Finland, a forestry dynamics model, the MELA model (Siitonen et al 1996), was designed in the 1970s to analyse wood production potentials at the regional and national levels based on the sample plot data collected in the NFI.…”

“…Since then analyses of forestry dynamics have been used in forest policy support, primarily to assess future felling potentials (e.g. Salminen and Salminen 1998;Hirvelä et al 1998;Nuutinen et al 2000;Nuutinen and Hirvelä 2006;Nuutinen et al 2007a;Salminen et al 2013) but increasingly also in supporting energy and climate policy (Kärkkäinen et al 2014;Haatanen et al 2014;Kallio et al 2016;Lehtonen et al 2016).…”

“…Consequently, forest information for management purposes has been traditionally collected and presented as means and totals for forest stands delineated, for example, with the help of aerial photographs. In national and regional impact and scenario analyses based on NFI sample plots in Finland, the simulation of feasible management activities is based on stand-level forest characteristics recorded for the sample plots (Hirvelä et al 1998, Nuutinen et al 2000Nuutinen and Hirvelä 2001;Nuutinen et al 2007a).…”

Forsteinrichtung

“…Betriebsebene (Siitonen et al 1996;Nuutinen, 2000;Redsven et al 2004 Hinweise und Begründungen zu den Handlungspfaden sind nachstehend aufgeführt:…”