Purpose-In this study, the long-term and the short-term relationships between economic growth and trade liberalization for 13 transition countries in Europe were examined. Methodology-The dataset includes 303 observations from 1995 to 2016 for the variables of gross domestic product (GDP), export (EXP), import (IMP), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), foreign direct investment (FDI) and human capital (HC). PLS Test, Pesaran ( 2004) CD-Test, Pesaran (2007) Unit Root Test, Swamy S Homogeneity Test conducted before causality and cointegration analysis. Dumitrescu & Hurlin (2012) Granger Panel Causality Test for short-term causality, and Westerlund ECM Panel Cointegration and PDOLS Estimator for long-term relationships analyses were employed. Findings-The short-term outcomes revealed that there is a bidirectional causality between (a) EXP and GDP, (b) GFCF and GDP, (c) FDI and GDP, (d) HC and GDP, and a unidirectional causality (e) from IMP to GDP. The long-term results show that (i) a 1% raise in EXP boosts GDP by 0.39%, (ii) a 1% raise in IMP boosts GDP by 0.11% (iii) a 1% raise in GFCF boosts GDP by 0.37% (iv) a 1% raise in FDI reduces GDP by 1.35%, (v) a 1% raise in HC boosts GDP by 0.54% in the long-term. Conclusion-Both in the short-term and the long-term trade liberalization has a positive impact on economic growth in mutual way between EXP, IMP and GDP as it is argued by the feed-back hypothesis.
In this paper, the long-term and the short-term relationship between economic growth and income inequality is investigated. The analysis covers 23 years period between 1993 and 2016 for the selected 14 European Union countries. In order to choose the appropriate model estimators: (i) "Pesaran CD Test" for the existence of cross-section dependency; (ii) "Swamy S Test" for the homogeneity of the parameters; (iii) "Pesaran 2007 CADF Test" for the stationarity of the series; (iv) "Hansen J Test" for the appropriate lag-length value; (v) "Westerlund Panel Cointegration Test" for the cointegration between the series were employed. Accordingly, the "Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG) and Dynamic Fixed Effects (DFE) Estimators" were employed in the model estimations. With the help of "Hausman Test", the PMG Estimator was determined as the most appropriate method among others in explaining the model. The PMG estimator revealed that a 1% rise in real economic growth distorts income inequality by 0.22% in the long-term. It is concluded that real economic growth adversely affects income inequlality in the long term. In this context, real economic growth in the long-term can be achieved at the expense of deterioration of income inequality. These results are in contradiction with Kuznets's view that income inequality can be improved in the longterm.
Amaç –Finansal serbestleşme süreci uluslararası sermaye akımlarını hızlandırmıştır. Ancak ülkelerde belli dönemlerde ortaya çıkan birtakım ekonomik ve siyasi belirsizlikler sonucunda finansal hareketlilik yavaşlamaktadır. Türkiye’nin siyasi ve ekonomik yönden bağlantılı olduğu ülkelerde son yıllarda yaşanan askeri çatışmalar, ekonomik krizler, politik ve toplumsal huzursuzluklar gibi birçok faktörün Türkiye’deki ekonomik faaliyetlerin gelişimini ve yatırım hacmini olumsuz etkilediği yönünde bir kanaat hakimdir. Bu çerçevede çalışmanın amacıTürkiye jeopolitik riskinin Borsa İstanbul sektör pay senedi fiyatlarına etkisini analiz etmektir.Yöntem –Araştırmada Türkiye jeopolitik risk göstergesi olarak Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi, Borsa İstanbul sektör pay senedi olarakBorsa İstanbul Bankalar, Elektrik, Leasing ve Factoring, Yiyecek&İçecek, Holding&Yatırımlar, Odun, Kağıt&Baskı, Kimyasal, Petrol&Plastik, Metal Ana, Metal Ürünleri&Makineler, Sigorta, Metal Harici Mineral Ürünleri, Toptan Satış&Perakende Ticaret, Tekstil&Deri, Turizm, Hizmet, Ulaştırma, Finansallar, Sınai endeksleri ve Borsa İstanbul 100 Endeksi dikkate alınmıştır. Çalışma kapsamı Mart 1997-Şubat 2022 dönemi aylık verilerinden oluşturulmuş ve bu veriler Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testiyle analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular –Çalışmanın sonucunda Türkiye jeopolitik riskinin Borsa İstanbul 100, Leasing ve Factoring, Yiyecek&İçecek, Holding&Yatırımlar, Kimyasal, Petrol&Plastik, Metal Ana, Metal Ürünleri&Makineler, Toptan Satış&Perakende Ticaret, Hizmet, Ulaştırma ve Sınai pay senedi fiyatları üzerinde etkisi olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.Tartışma –Çalışmada ulaşılan sonuçlar, sektörlerin jeopolitik gerilimlere karşı duyarlılık derecelerinin farklı düzeylerde olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Potansiyel pay senedipiyasası yatırımcılarının portföy oluşturma aşamasında sektörlerin jeopolitik risklerden etkilenme durumlarını da göz önüne almaları, karlarını yüksek düzeye çıkarmaları bakımından önemlidir. Yatırımcıların Türkiye’ye çekilebilmesi için ülkenin dış ilişkilerde jeopolitik risk doğuracak gerginliklerden kaçınması, siyasi, askeri ve iktisadi yönlerden zaman içinde gerçekleşen olayları demokratik ve insani yollarla çözmeye çalışması ve potansiyel yatırımcılar için güven ortamı inşa etmesi gerekmektedir.
Coronavirus , which emerged as an epidemic in China in December 2019, has been recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization as of March 2020. Events regarding the coronavirus shocked the markets and were seen as a threat to the markets. In this context, this study aims to examine the effect of the COVID-19 on Bitcoin prices and precious metals which are seen as low-risk assets in global markets.In the study, the causality relationship between the daily number of COVID-19 cases approved by the WHO and Google trends, and the price series of Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium was investigated to determine the effects of the developments in the course of the epidemic on the prices of Bitcoin and precious
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