Savaşın başladığı 2011 yılından itibaren milyonlarca Suriyeli çeşitli rotaları takip ederek önce komşu ülkelere daha sonra da Avrupa içlerine doğru hareket etmiştir. Türkiye’de Gaziantep ve İzmir, Macaristan’da ise Szeged Suriyelilerin Batı Avrupa’ya doğru uzanan göç rotasının değişik noktalarında yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Suriyelilerin Kuzey Suriye - Batı Avrupa göç rotasının giriş, transit ve çıkış noktalarında yer alan bu üç şehirdeki Suriyelilerin ve buralarda yaşayan yerel halkın güvenlik algılarını ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaca yönelik olarak analiz, yorumcu (interpretivist) bir perspektiften yapılacaktır. Çalışma Gaziantep’te 2011-2015, İzmir’de 2015-2017 ve Szeged’de 2015-2017 yılları arasında yapılan gözlemlere, yapılandırılmamış veya yarı yapılandırılmış görüşmelere dayanmaktadır. Böylece Suriyeli mültecilerin ve yerel halkın güvenlik algıları insani güvenliği kavramsal çerçevesinde karşılaştırılmıştır. Yapılan karşılaştırma sonucunda üç kentte de Suriyelilerin ve yerel halkın güvenlik algılarının, o şehrin göç rotasının hangi noktasında bulunduğu, uluslararası mülteci rejimi ve ulusal düzeydeki mülteci politikalarından etkilenmiş olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır.ABSTRACT IN ENGLISHHuman Security Perceptions of Syrians and the Local People in Border Provinces of Gaziantep, Izmir and SzegedSince the beginning of the war in 2011, millions of Syrians have left their country by following the various routes to move into neighbouring countries first, then into Europe. Gaziantep and Izmir in Turkey and Szeged in Hungary are situated at the different points of Syrian migration route from Northern Syria to Western Europe. This study aims to explore the security perceptions of Syrians and the local people living in these cities. For this purpose, an interpretivist approach was taken. The study is based on observations, unstructured and semi-structured interviews that were conducted in Gaziantep İzmir and Szeged between 2011 and 2017. Security perceptions of Syrian refugees and local people were compared within the context of human security perspective. The study found that the security perceptions of Syrians and the local population in three cities were affected by the position of these cities at the migration route, international refugee regime and refugee policies at the national level.
Our country has a arbater place in hazelnut market by getting the first ranking in manufacturing and exporting of hazeknuts all over the World. Therefore, it has an important role in shaping the hazelnut market. The aim of this study is, by modelling the hazetnut exportation between 1961-2018 with time series, make a prediction of hazelnut exportation till 2023. It was reached to Hazelnut export database via FAO and ARIMA modelling has been used to predict the years 2019-2023. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the most suitable model was ARIMA (1,1,11). According to the results, Turkey's hazelnut exports was 162b tons in 2019 and it has been determined that when it becomes 2023 it will reach upto 176 thousand tons.
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