Modelling of Hazelnut Export in Turkey by Using Box-Jenkins Method and Export Forecast

Abstract

Our country has a arbater place in hazelnut market by getting the first ranking in manufacturing and exporting of hazeknuts all over the World. Therefore, it has an important role in shaping the hazelnut market. The aim of this study is, by modelling the hazetnut exportation between 1961-2018 with time series, make a prediction of hazelnut exportation till 2023. It was reached to Hazelnut export database via FAO and ARIMA modelling has been used to predict the years 2019-2023. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the most suitable model was ARIMA (1,1,11). According to the results, Turkey's hazelnut exports was 162b tons in 2019 and it has been determined that when it becomes 2023 it will reach upto 176 thousand tons.