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DISCUSSION PAPER 14.09 Acknowledgements :We acknowledge James Ma for excellent research assistance, Australian Research Council (DP1092913) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(12JNYH002, via Jinan University, Guangzhou) for financial support and participants of CESA-Jinan University international conference (December 12-13, 2013) for helpful comments.

One critical factor that affects China's achievement of its peak emission by 2030 is total electricity demand. The aim of this study is to examine regional disparity in electricity consumption in China. The analysis is based on a panel database which is compiled at the provincial level. A distributional dynamics approach is then employed to reveal the trend and movement of each province within the distributions in different regional groupings. The mobility probability plot (MPP) is also employed to provide detailed information on the probability of change in electricity consumption. The results demonstrate significant divergence presents across provinces, over time and within different regional groups. The results can pinpoint the transition mechanism within each region so that appropriate energy policy can be formulated to accommodate future demand in electricity for different regions in China. The results suggest that regional specific energy efficiency policy is needed.

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