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The human footprint (HF) was developed to measure of the impact of human activities on the environment. The human footprint has been found to be closely related to the vulnerability of protected areas around the world. In Indonesia, as nature conservation is still seen as hindering economic development, it is especially important to assess the human footprint in order to comprehend the overall pressures resulting from the various human activities on Indonesia’s national parks. This study measured the change in the human footprint in and around 43 terrestrial national parks over 5 years, between 2012 and 2017. As many as 37 out of 43 NPs experienced an increase in the HF, ranging from 0.4 to 77.3%. Tanjung Puting in Kalimantan experienced the greatest increase (77.3%), while Ujung Kulon in Jawa Bali bioregion had the greatest decrease (10.5%). An increase in human population density and improved access to parks from roads, rivers and coastlines are the main drivers of increasing impacts on national parks.

Abstract. Sari N, Patria MP, Soesilo TEB, Tejakusuma IG. 2019. The structure of mangrove communities in response to water quality in Jakarta Bay, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 20: 1873-1879. The waters of Jakarta Bay, which is a habitat for mangrove vegetation, have been polluted caused by many human activities such as development of housing, industry, tourism and facilities along the coast, and reclamation of man-made islands. The islands reclamation has caused changes in ocean current pattern and has impacts on material mobilization in the waters. The mangroves have experienced degradation as well since long time ago. The purpose of this research was to investigate the responses of mangrove vegetation to the quality of water in disturbed areas in Jakarta Bay to be used as baseline information for mangrove forest management in the area. Analysis of vegetation was used to examine mangrove community structure with the results were then related to the measurements on water quality using simulation modeling. The results show that mangrove forests in Jakarta Bay have an average Important Value Index (IVI) for all levels of life stage 95.7% with relative density of 28.85%, relative frequency of 29.21%, and closure relative of 38.62%. These results indicate that the mangrove forests in Jakarta Bay are under the criteria of damaged or disturbed according to the Minister of Environment Regulation. The mangrove forests were dominated by Avicennia marina, Avicennia lanata, Rhizophora apiculata, Sonneratia caseolaris, and Sonneratia alba. The average of ocean current velocity was 0.04-0.08 m/s. tides were single type with short waves generated by wind. The water discharge from 13 rivers were 205 ± 97 m3/s and the water discharge from power plant 224.9 m3/s. The heavy metal whereas The average pH was 7.75; Dissolved Oxygen 4.68 mg/L; turbidity 5 m; Total Suspended Solid (TSS) 50.95 mg/L; and salinity 6.6 ‰. The result of grain size analysis showed that most sediments obtained was in the form of silt with a mixture of little clay and sand. The responses showed that there was a reinforced pattern for pH, temperatures, rainfall, brightness, sediment, DO, and ocean current, with a trend of exponential growth in two years next of important value index of mangroves in response to water quality in Jakarta Bay. The heavy metals of Pb have concentrations of 65-104 ppm in sediments and 38-60 ppm in the water column; Zn has 150-258 ppm in sediment and 42-140 ppm in water column; Cu has 34-72 ppm in sediment and 13-30 ppm in water column; Ni has 33-39 ppm in sediment and 40-50 ppm in water column; Cd has 5.9-8 ppm in sediment and 8.5-15 ppm in the water column. The heavy metals, TSS, and water river discharge have balance-decay pattern. The amount of river water discharge entering Jakarta Bay, the heavy metals, and the low level of ocean currents cause coastal waters of Jakarta Bay to become muddy puddles that cannot flow properly. These conditions make the mangrove forest habitat becomes polluted and the mangrove vegetation degraded. Therefore, all of these things need to get serious attention so the mangrove forests can be restored and the function of mangroves can return to normal.

Rice is a staple food in most Asian countries, and food security is often viewed as having a rice supply to avoid a food crisis. The large number of people who have low incomes means there is a risk of household economic conditions being threatened when food prices are not controlled. We present a different approach by measuring rice price volatility at the local market level with climate and macroeconomic variables. The model succeeds in representing the variables that affect rice prices by an average of 75% nationally. The influence of macroeconomic variables and climate dynamics was found to have a non-uniform pattern from one region to another. The factors that dominate the volatility of rice prices in each province were different. To help address these problems, it is suggested to model and integrate climate data and macroeconomic variables. The output can be used to determine national policies for controllable factors and anticipate climate dynamics to reduce the risk that communities will have difficulty accessing food.

ObjectivesFind the discriminant and calibration of APACHE II (Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation) score to predict mortality for different type of intensive care unit (ICU) patients.MethodsThis is a cohort retrospective study using secondary data of ICU patients admitted to Siloam Hospital of Lippo Village from 2014 to 2018 with minimum age ≥17 years. The analysis uses the receiver operating characteristic curve, student t-test and logistic regression to find significant variables needed to predict mortality.ResultsA total of 2181 ICU patients: men (55.52%) and women (44.48%) with an average age of 53.8 years old and length of stay 3.92 days were included in this study. Patients were admitted from medical emergency (30.5%), neurosurgical (52.1%) and surgical (17.4%) departments, with 10% of mortality proportion. Patients admitted from the medical emergency had the highest average APACHE score, 23.14±8.5, compared with patients admitted from neurosurgery 15.3±6.6 and surgical 15.8±6.8. The mortality rate of patients from medical emergency (24.5%) was higher than patients from neurosurgery (3.5%) or surgical (5.3%) departments. Area under curve of APACHE II score showed 0.8536 (95% CI 0.827 to 0.879). The goodness of fit Hosmer-Lemeshow show p=0.000 with all ICU patients’ mortality; p=0.641 with medical emergency, p=0.0001 with neurosurgical and p=0.000 with surgical patients.ConclusionAPACHE II has a good discriminant for predicting mortality among ICU patients in Siloam Hospital but poor calibration score. However, it demonstrates poor calibration in neurosurgical and surgical patients while demonstrating adequate calibration in medical emergency patients.

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Citarum River is one of the most polluted river in the word. The pollution is not only derived from plant waste, but also household waste to livestock. West Java Government has a policy to handle Citarum problems, called Citarum Bestari Program. Citarum Bestari expected to solve pollution problems in Citarum River. This paper seeks to attempt the position of the West Java Government policy in the face of SDGs, particularly in this research will using qualitative methods, which is supported by the concept of David Easton political system. The author would like to see any input that may affect the policy-making in the local government with a political ecology approach. Support and demand for local governments of West Java is quite a lot already, not only from the international community but also among local residents and NGOs. This happens because many environmental impacts that occurred lately, such as flooding. Pollution that occurred along the Citarum River should be of particular concern for the Government of West Java, takes a neutral policy and strict supervision. Not only policies that benefit one of the parties (producers) but also to the other party (the environment and society).

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