In 2014, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 40 armed conflicts with a minimum of 25 battlerelated deaths, up by six from 2013. This is the highest number of conflicts reported since 1999, and 11 of these conflicts were defined as wars, that is, conflicts generating 1,000 or more battle-related deaths in one calendar year. Further, an escalation of several conflicts, coupled with the extreme violence in Syria, resulted in the highest number of battlerelated deaths in the post-1989 period. Yet, compared to the large-scale interstate wars of the 20th century, the number of fatalities caused by armed conflicts in 2014 was relatively low. Additionally, seven conflicts identified in 2013 were no longer active in 2014. However, four new conflicts erupted in 2014, all of them in Ukraine, and three previously registered conflicts were restarted by new actors. Furthermore, six conflicts reoccurred with previously registered actors. A positive development, however, is the increase to ten of the number of peace agreements concluded and signed in 2014, which represents a further four compared with 2013. And although this increase is part of a positive trend since 2011, it is worth noting that several peace processes remained fragile by the end of the year.

This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The defeat of Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq has pushed the number of fatalities, almost 75,600, to its lowest level since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. However, this de-escalation in Syria is countered by increased violence in Africa, as IS and other transnational jihadist groups have relocated their efforts there. Furthermore, violence has continued to increase in Afghanistan; UCDP recorded more than 31,200 fatalities in Afghanistan in 2019, which accounts for 40% of all fatalities from organized violence across the globe. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active conflicts, which remained on a historically high level. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2019, including seven wars. Twenty-eight state-based conflicts involved IS (Islamic State), al-Qaida or their affiliates. In the past decade, conflicts involving these transnational jihadist groups have driven many of the trends in organized violence.

This article reports on trends in organized violence and peace agreements collected by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The number of fatalities in organized violence decreased for the fourth consecutive year, to reach the lowest level since 2012. In 2018, UCDP recorded almost 76,000 deaths: a decrease of 20% compared to 2017, and 43% compared to the latest peak in 2014. State-based armed conflict drives this downward trend in organized violence, with Syria accounting for much of the change. The number of civilians killed in one-sided violence also dropped in 2018, reaching its lowest level since 2012. In contrast, non-state conflict remained on a high level. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active conflicts. In fact, the world has seen a new peak in the number of conflicts after 2014, matched only by the number of conflicts in the early 1990s. In 1991, the peak in the number of armed conflicts corresponded with a similar peak in the number of signed peace agreements. This was followed by a decrease in the number of conflicts in the late 1990s and early 2000s. However, the most recent rise in armed conflicts has not been matched by a similar rise in the number of peace agreements. Two circumstances that characterize the recent rise in conflicts have also been found to make conflicts harder to solve: explicit religious claims and high levels of internationalization.

The molecular mechanisms underlying the development and evolution of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) are largely unknown. The increasing number of blast cells in the bone marrow correlate with poor prognosis and risk of developing acute leukemia. Such progression is frequently associated with increasing chromosomal abnormalities and genetic mutations. A cohort of 75 MDS patients were investigated for RAS, FMS and p53 mutations, and these molecular findings were related to cytogenetics, clinical status, transformation to acute leukemia, prognostic scores and survival. A mutation incidence of 57% (43/75) was found, with 48% (36/75) RAS mutations, 12% (9/75) FMS mutations and 8% (4/50) p53 mutations. The mutation status for RAS and FMS was related to MDS subgroup, increasing with poor-risk disease. The highest incidence was in the chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) subgroup. The most frequent RAS mutations were of codon 12 and a predominance of FMS codon 969 mutations was observed. A statistically significant increased frequency of transformation to AML was observed in MDS patients harboring RAS or FMS mutations (P Ͻ 0.02). Patients with oncogene mutations had a significantly poorer survival compared with those without mutations at 2 years and at the end of the period of follow-up (P Ͻ 0.02). Multivariate analysis including mutation, age, gender, diagnosis (FAB), cytogenetics and International score shows that the International score and mutation and age is the best predictive model of a poor outcome, (P Ͻ0.0001). When the analysis was undertaken without the International score, mutation and gender was the best predictor of poor survival (P = 0.005). This study shows that oncogene mutation, indicative of genetic instability, is associated with disease progression and poor survival in MDS.