Many decadal climate prediction efforts have been initiated under phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. There is considerable ongoing discussion about model deficiencies, initialization techniques, and data requirements, but not much attention is being given to decadal climate information (DCI) needs of stakeholders for decision support. Here, the authors report the results of exploratory activities undertaken to assess DCI needs in water resources and agriculture sectors, using the Missouri River basin as a case study. This assessment was achieved through discussions with 120 stakeholders.Stakeholders' awareness of decadal dry and wet spells and their societal impacts in the basin are described, and stakeholders' DCI needs and potential barriers to their use of DCI are enumerated. The authors find that impacts, including economic impacts, of decadal climate variability (DCV) on water and agricultural production in the basin are distinctly identifiable and characterizable. Stakeholders have clear notions about their needs for DCI and have offered specific suggestions as to how these might be met. However, while stakeholders are eager to have climate information, including decadal climate outlooks (DCOs), there are many barriers to the use of such information. The first and foremost barrier is that the credibility of DCOs is yet to be established. Second, the nature of institutional rules and regulations, laws, and legal precedents that pose obstacles to the use of DCOs must be better understood and means to modify these, where possible, must be sought. For the benefit of climate scientists, these and other stakeholder needs are also articulated in this paper.
Sustainable management is a complex process that involves balancing the competing interests of the human, plant, and animal communities that depend on watershed resources. It involves developing and implementing plans, programs, and projects that sustain and enhance watershed functions while taking into account the natural, social, political, economic, and institutional factors operating within the watershed and other relevant regions. Examples of such factors include crosscutting mandates by different levels of government, conflicting objectives across sectors, and the constraints and uncertainty of the availability and accessibility of the resources within the watershed. One way to address these complexities is with public participation processes designed to share knowledge among disciplinary experts, policy‐makers, and local stakeholders and provide outcomes, which inform the creation of sustainable watershed management plans. Serious games (i.e., games played for purposes other than pure entertainment) are an example of such processes. Here, we present a case study of how a serious game, called the multi‐hazard tournament, was used to facilitate watershed management by promoting social learning, cross‐sectoral dialogue, and stakeholder participation in the planning process.
Rural towns are especially susceptible to the effects of drought because their economies are dependent on natural resources. However, they are also resilient in many ways to natural hazards because they are rich in civic engagement and social capital. Because of the diverse nature of drought’s impacts, understanding its complex dynamics and its effects requires a multidisciplinary approach. To study these dynamics, this research combines appreciative inquiry, the Community Capitals Framework, and a range of climatological monitoring data to assess the 2012–14 Great Plains drought’s effect on McCook, Nebraska. Community coping measures, such as water-use reduction and public health programs, were designed to address the immediate effects of heat and scant rainfall during the initial summer and the subsequent years. Residents generally reported the community was better prepared than in previous droughts, including the persistent multiyear early-2000s drought. However, the results highlight wide variation in community perspectives about the drought’s severity and impacts, as well as divergent experiences and coping responses. Despite these factors, we find evidence of the transformative potential of moving from drought coping to drought mitigation. We attribute the city’s resilience to the ability to draw upon prior experience with droughts, having a formal municipal plan, and strong human and social capital to coordinate individual knowledge and expertise across agencies. We suggest that droughts have served a catalytic function, prompting the community to transform land-use practices, water conservation planning, and built infrastructure in lasting ways.
In the United States, drought is the second costliest natural disaster, which leads to the need for increased drought mitigation efforts over time. However, drought planning has lagged behind other hazard mitigation efforts, which is likely due to the lack of a national drought planning policy. Although the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires all jurisdictions have a hazard mitigation plan (HMP) to receive pre-disaster mitigation funds, drought has only recently been a requirement in HMPs. In 2012, Nebraska witnessed its worse drought in recent history, which exposed the gaps in drought planning effectiveness at all jurisdictional levels. To address potential drought planning gaps, we developed, conducted, and evaluated a Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA), a FEMA risk assessment process, which solely focused on drought. This droughtspecific THIRA consisted of a one-day workshop in which stakeholders and agency experts from the Platte River Basin in Nebraska worked collaboratively to determine the necessary resources for successfully managing a worst-case drought scenario in the region. We analyzed the findings of this workshop and compared them against the current drought planning activities in the Platte River Basin and found that the current drought planning activities would not be effective against a worstcase drought, in terms of reducing drought vulnerability and increasing preparedness and response efforts. Our use of a drought-specific THIRA and drought plan evaluation provides both a quality process to increase drought mitigation efforts and a process to strengthen the integration between stand-alone drought plans and hazard mitigation plans.
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