We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number. RESULTSAmong the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9). CONCLUSIONSOn the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.) a bs tr ac t Early Transmission Dynamics

Two new SARS-CoV-2 lineages with the N501Y mutation in the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein spread rapidly in the United Kingdom. We estimated that the earlier 501Y lineage without amino acid deletion Δ69/Δ70, circulating mainly between early September and mid-November, was 10% (6–13%) more transmissible than the 501N lineage, and the 501Y lineage with amino acid deletion Δ69/Δ70, circulating since late September, was 75% (70–80%) more transmissible than the 501N lineage.

A novel betacoronavirus associated with lethal respiratory and renal complications was recently identified in patients from several countries in the Middle East. We report the deep genome sequencing of the virus directly from a patient’s sputum sample. Our high-throughput sequencing yielded a substantial depth of genome sequence assembly and showed the minority viral variants in the specimen. Detailed phylogenetic analysis of the virus genome (England/Qatar/2012) revealed its close relationship to European bat coronaviruses circulating among the bat species of the Vespertilionidae family. Molecular clock analysis showed that the 2 human infections of this betacoronavirus in June 2012 (EMC/2012) and September 2012 (England/Qatar/2012) share a common virus ancestor most likely considerably before early 2012, suggesting the human diversity is the result of multiple zoonotic events.

s u m m a r yObjectives: To improve our understanding of the global epidemiology of common respiratory viruses by analysing their contemporaneous incidence at multiple sites. Methods: 2010-2015 incidence data for influenza A (IAV), influenza B (IBV), respiratory syncytial (RSV) and parainfluenza (PIV) virus infections were collected from 18 sites (14 countries), consisting of local ( n = 6), regional ( n = 9) and national ( n = 3) laboratories using molecular diagnostic methods. Each site submitted monthly virus incidence data, together with details of their patient populations tested and diagnostic assays used.Results: For the Northern Hemisphere temperate countries, the IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks were 2-6 months out of phase with those in the Southern Hemisphere, with IAV having a sharp out-of-phase difference at 6 months, whereas IBV and RSV showed more variable out-of-phase differences of 2-6 months. The tropical sites Singapore and Kuala Lumpur showed fluctuating incidence of these viruses throughout the year, whereas subtropical sites such as Hong Kong, Brisbane and Sydney showed distinctive biannual peaks for IAV but not for RSV and PIV. Conclusions: There was a notable pattern of synchrony of IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks globally, and within countries with multiple sampling sites (Canada, UK, Australia), despite significant distances between these sites.

No abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 lineage carrying the amino acid change D614G has become the dominant variant in the global COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid spread of the G614 mutant suggests that it may have a transmission advantage over the D614 wildtype. Using our previous epidemiological framework to analyze COVID-19 surveillance and sequence data, we estimated that the G614 mutant is 31% (28-34%) more transmissible than the D614 wildtype. As such, interventions that were previously effective in containing or mitigating the D614 wildtype (e.g. in China, Vietnam, Thailand, etc.) might be less effective against the G614 mutant. Our framework can be readily integrated into current COVID-19 surveillance to monitor the emergence and fitness of mutant strains, such that pandemic surveillance, disease control and development of treatment and vaccines can be adjusted dynamically.

Two new SARS-CoV-2 lineages with the N501Y mutation in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein have rapidly become prevalent in the UK. We estimated that the earlier 501Y lineage without amino acid deletion Δ69/Δ70 circulating mainly between early September to mid-November was 10% (6-13%) more transmissible than the 501N lineage, and the currently dominant 501Y lineage with amino acid deletion Δ69/Δ70 circulating since late September was 75% (70-80%) more transmissible than the 501N lineage.

Motivation The potentially low precision associated with the geographic origin of sampled sequences represents an important limitation for spatially explicit (i.e. continuous) phylogeographic inference of fast-evolving pathogens such as RNA viruses. A substantial proportion of publicly available sequences is geo-referenced at broad spatial scale such as the administrative unit of origin, rather than more precise locations (e.g. geographic coordinates). Most frequently, such sequences are either discarded prior to continuous phylogeographic inference or arbitrarily assigned to the geographic coordinates of the centroid of their administrative area of origin for lack of a better alternative. Results We here implement and describe a new approach that allows to incorporate heterogeneous prior sampling probabilities over a geographic area. External data, such as outbreak locations, are used to specify these prior sampling probabilities over a collection of sub-polygons. We apply this new method to the analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 clade data in the Mekong region. Our method allows to properly include, in continuous phylogeographic analyses, H5N1 sequences that are only associated with large administrative areas of origin and assign them with more accurate locations. Finally, we use continuous phylogeographic reconstructions to analyse the dispersal dynamics of different H5N1 clades and investigate the impact of environmental factors on lineage dispersal velocities. Availability and implementation Our new method allowing heterogeneous sampling priors for continuous phylogeographic inference is implemented in the open-source multi-platform software package BEAST 1.10. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.