Highlights
We model stock price variation around the world during the corona crash.
We use Google search volume activity as a gauge of panic and fear.
Search terms are specific to the coronavirus crisis.
Our sample covers 10 stock market indices.
Excess search volume predicts price variation during the corona crash.
The structure of return spillovers is examined by constructing Granger causality networks using daily closing prices of 20 developed markets from 2 nd January 2006 to 31 st December 2013. The data is properly aligned to take into account non-synchronous trading effects. The study of the resulting networks of over 94 sub-samples revealed three significant findings.First, after the recent financial crisis the impact of the US stock market has declined. Second, spatial probit models confirmed the role of the temporal proximity between market closing times for return spillovers, i.e. the time distance between national stock markets matters.Third, preferential attachment between stock markets exists, i.e. spillover from market j to market i is more likely if A) market j influences other markets other than i, or when B) market i is influenced by other markets other than j.Keywords: stock market networks, Granger causality, emerging and frontier markets, nonsynchronous trading, preferential attachment,
JEL classification: L14, G1Highlights: Granger causality networks are constructed among 20 developed stock markets. A detailed procedure of handling the non-synchronicity of daily data is proposed. The spatial probit model is used to study the structure of the created networks. Relationships between markets depend on a temporal proximity of closing times.
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. We show significant temporal proximity effects between markets and somewhat weaker temporal effects with regard to the US equity marketvolatility spillovers decrease when markets are characterized by greater temporal proximity.
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Documents inVolatility spillovers also present a high degree of interconnectedness. Our results also link spillovers of escalating magnitude with increasing market size, market liquidity and economic openness.JEL-Codes: C310, C580, F010, G010, G150.Keywords: volatility spillovers, stock markets, shock transmission, Granger causality network, spatial regression, financial crisis. We benefited from helpful comments we received from two anonymous referees and participants at several presentations.
Eduard Baumöhl University of Economics in Bratislava
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