Objective
Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a substantial heritable component. Common genetic variation has been shown to contribute to CRC risk. In a large, multi-population study, we set out to assess the feasibility of CRC risk prediction using common genetic variant data, combined with other risk factors. We built a risk prediction model and applied it to the Scottish population using available data.
Design
Nine populations of European descent were studied to develop and validate colorectal cancer risk prediction models. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the combined effect of age, gender, family history (FH) and genotypes at 10 susceptibility loci that individually only modestly influence colorectal cancer risk. Risk models were generated from case-control data incorporating genotypes alone (n=39,266), and in combination with gender, age and family history (n=11,324). Model discriminatory performance was assessed using 10-fold internal cross-validation and externally using 4,187 independent samples. 10-year absolute risk was estimated by modelling genotype and FH with age- and gender-specific population risks.
Results
Median number of risk alleles was greater in cases than controls (10 vs 9, p<2.2×10−16), confirmed in external validation sets (Sweden p=1.2×10−6, Finland p=2×10−5). Mean per-allele increase in risk was 9% (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.05–1.13). Discriminative performance was poor across the risk spectrum (area under curve (AUC) for genotypes alone - 0.57; AUC for genotype/age/gender/FH - 0.59). However, modelling genotype data, FH, age and gender with Scottish population data shows the practicalities of identifying a subgroup with >5% predicted 10-year absolute risk.
Conclusion
We show that genotype data provides additional information that complements age, gender and FH as risk factors. However, individualized genetic risk prediction is not currently feasible. Nonetheless, the modelling exercise suggests public health potential, since it is possible to stratify the population into CRC risk categories, thereby informing targeted prevention and surveillance.
A validated geographic search filter to retrieve research about the UK with high recall and precision has been developed. The medline UK filter can be applied to systematic literature searches in OVID medline for topics with a UK focus.
It was often uncertain whether antiseptics were associated with any difference in healing, infections, or other outcomes. Where there is moderate or high certainty evidence, decision makers need to consider the applicability of the evidence from the comparison to their patients. Reporting was poor, to the extent that we are not confident that most trials are free from risk of bias.
Glycerol kinase (GK) represents the primary entry of glycerol into glucose and triglyceride metabolism. Impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and hypertriglyceridemia are associated with an increased risk of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease. The relationship between glycerol and the risk of IGT, however, is poorly understood. We therefore undertook the study of fasting plasma glycerol levels in a cohort of 1,056 unrelated men and women of French-Canadian descent. Family screening in the initial cohort identified 18 men from five families with severe hyperglycerolemia (values above 2.0 mmol/liter) and demonstrated an X-linked pattern of inheritance. Linkage analysis of the data from 12 microsatellite markers surrounding the Xp21.3 GK gene resulted in a peak LOD score of 3.46, centered around marker DXS8039. In addition, since all of the families originated in a population with a proven founder effect-the Saguenay Lac-St.-Jean region of Quebec-a common disease haplotype was sought. Indeed, a six-marker haplotype extending over a region of 5.5 cM was observed in all families. Resequencing of the GK gene in family members led to the discovery of a N288D missense mutation in exon 10, which resulted in the substitution of a highly conserved asparagine residue by a negatively charged aspartic acid. Although patients with the N288D mutation suffered from severe hyperglycerolemia, they were apparently otherwise healthy. The phenotypic analysis of the family members, however, showed that glycerol levels correlated with impaired glucose metabolism and body-fat distribution. We subsequently noted a substantial variation in glycerolemia in subjects of the initial cohort with normal plasma glycerol levels and demonstrated that this variance showed significant family resemblance. These results suggest a potentially important genetic connection between fasting glycerolemia and glucose homeostasis, not only in this X-linked deficiency but, potentially, in individuals within the "normal" range of plasma glycerol concentrations.
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