Multinomial processing tree (MPT) models have become popular in cognitive psychology in the past two decades. In contrast to general-purpose data analysis techniques, such as log-linear models or other generalized linear models, MPT models are substantively motivated stochastic models for categorical data. They are best described as tools (a) for measuring the cognitive processes that underlie human behavior in various tasks and (b) for testing the psychological assumptions on which these models are based. The present article provides a review of MPT models and their applications in psychology, focusing on recent trends and developments in the past 10 years. Our review is nontechnical in nature and primarily aims at informing readers about the scope and utility of MPT models in different branches of cognitive psychology.

No abstract

Hindsight bias is the tendency to overestimate one's prior knowledge of a fact or event after learning the actual fact. Recent research has suggested that age-related differences in hindsight bias may be based on age-related differences in inhibitory control. We tested whether this explanation held for 3 cognitive processes assumed to underlie hindsight bias: recollection bias, reconstruction bias, and the tendency to adopt newly acquired knowledge as old. We performed a typical hindsight-bias study with 9-year-olds, 12-year-olds, young adults, and older adults. Participants first gave numerical judgments to difficult almanac questions. They later received the correct judgments for some of the questions while trying to recall their own earlier judgments. To experimentally test the impact of inhibitory control, the correct judgment was presented either in a weak or in a strong manner that was difficult to ignore. Hindsight bias was larger in the strong condition than in the weak condition and followed a U-shaped life-span pattern with young adults showing the least hindsight bias in line with an inhibitory-control explanation. Yet, the mixture of underlying processes differed considerably between age groups, so inhibitory control did not suffice as a sole explanation of age differences.

Abstract. A memory measurement model is presented that accounts for judgments of remembering, knowing, and guessing in old-new recognition tasks by assuming four disjoint latent memory states: recollection, familiarity, uncertainty, and rejection. This four-states model can be applied to both Tulving's (1985) remember-know procedure (RK version) and Gardiner and coworker's ( Gardiner, Java, & Richardson-Klavehn, 1996 ; Gardiner, Richardson-Klavehn, & Ramponi, 1997 ) remember-know-guess procedure (RKG version). It is shown that the RK version of the model fits remember-know data approximately as well as the one-dimensional signal detection model does. In contrast, the RKG version of the four-states model outperforms the corresponding detection model even if unequal variances for old and new items are allowed for.We show empirically that the two versions of the four-statesmodelmeasure the same state probabilities. However, the RKG version, requiring remember-know-guess judgments, provides parameter estimates with smaller standard errors and is therefore recommended for routine use.

No abstract