Background Universal testing and treatment (UTT) is a potential strategy to reduce HIV incidence, yet prior trial results are inconsistent. We report results from HPTN 071 (PopART), the largest HIV prevention trial to date. Methods In this community-randomized trial (2013-18), 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa were randomized to Arm A (PopART intervention, universal antiretroviral therapy [ART]), Arm B (PopART intervention, ART per local guidelines), and Arm C (standard-of-care). The PopART intervention included home-based HIV-testing delivered by community workers who supported linkage-to-care, ART adherence, and other services. The primary outcome, HIV incidence between months 12-36, was measured in a Population Cohort (PC) of ~2,000 randomly-sampled adults/community aged 18-44y. Viral suppression (VS, <400 copies HIV RNA/ml) was measured in all HIV-positive PC participants at 24m. Results The PC included 48,301 participants. Baseline HIV prevalence was similar across study arms (21%-22%). Between months 12-36, 553 incident HIV infections were observed over 39,702 person-years (py; 1.4/100py; women: 1.7/100py; men: 0.8/100py). Adjusted rate-ratios were A vs. C: 0.93 (95%CI: 0.74-1.18, p=0.51); B vs. C: 0.70 (95%CI: 0.55-0.88, p=0.006). At 24m, VS was 71.9% in Arm A; 67.5% in Arm B; and 60.2% in Arm C. ART coverage after 36m was 81% in Arm A and 80% in Arm B. Conclusions The PopART intervention with ART per local guidelines reduced HIV incidence by 30%. The lack of effect with universal ART was surprising and inconsistent with VS data. This study provides evidence that UTT can reduce HIV incidence at population level. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01900977

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The COVPN 5002 (COMPASS) study aimed to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (active SARS-CoV-2 or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection) in children and adults attending public venues in 15 socio-demographically diverse communities in the United States. To protect against potential challenges in implementing traditional sampling strategies, time-location sampling (TLS) using complex sampling involving stratification, clustering of units, and unequal probabilities of selection was used to recruit individuals from neighborhoods in selected communities. The innovative design adapted to constraints such as closure of venues; changing infection hotspots; and uncertain policies. Recruitment of children and the elderly raised additional challenges in sample selection and implementation. To address these challenges, the TLS design adaptively updated both the sampling frame and the selection probabilities over time using information acquired from prior weeks. Although the study itself was specific to COVID-19, the strategies presented in this paper could serve as a case study that can be adapted for performing rigorous population-level inferences in similar settings and could help inform rapid and effective responses to future global public health challenges.

Universal HIV testing and treatment (UTT) strategies aim to optimize population-level benefits of antiretroviral treatment. Between 2012 and 2018, four large community randomized trials were conducted in eastern and southern Africa. While their results were broadly consistent showing decreased population-level viremia reduces HIV incidence, it remains unclear how much HIV incidence can be reduced by increasing suppression among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We conducted a pooled analysis across the four UTT trials. Leveraging data from 105 communities in five countries, we evaluated the linear relationship between i) population-level viremia (prevalence of non-suppression–defined as plasma HIV RNA >500 or >400 copies/mL–among all adults, irrespective of HIV status) and HIV incidence; and ii) prevalence of non-suppression among PLHIV and HIV incidence, using parametric g-computation. HIV prevalence, measured in 257 929 persons, varied from 2 to 41% across the communities; prevalence of non-suppression among PLHIV, measured in 31 377 persons, from 3 to 70%; population-level viremia, derived from HIV prevalence and non-suppression, from < 1% to 25%; and HIV incidence, measured over 345 844 person-years (PY), from 0.03/100PY to 3.46/100PY. Decreases in population-level viremia were strongly associated with decreased HIV incidence in all trials (between 0.45/100PY and 1.88/100PY decline in HIV incidence per 10 percentage points decline in viremia). Decreases in non-suppression among PLHIV were also associated with decreased HIV incidence in all trials (between 0.06/100PY and 0.17/100PY decline in HIV incidence per 10 percentage points decline in non-suppression). Our results support both the utility of population-level viremia as a predictor of incidence, and thus a tool for targeting prevention interventions, and the ability of UTT approaches to reduce HIV incidence by increasing viral suppression. Implementation of universal HIV testing approaches, coupled with interventions to leverage linkage to treatment, adapted to local contexts, can reduce HIV acquisition at population level.