Introduction
A vaginal ring containing dapivirine is effective for
HIV
prevention as pre‐exposure prophylaxis (Pr
EP
). We evaluated the potential epidemiological impact and cost‐effectiveness of dapivirine vaginal ring Pr
EP
among 22‐ to 45‐year‐old women in KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa.
Methods
Using mathematical modelling, we studied dapivirine vaginal ring Pr
EP
implementation, either unprioritized, or prioritized based on
HIV
incidence (≥3% per year), age (22 to 29 years) or female sex worker status, alongside the implementation of voluntary medical male circumcision and antiretroviral therapy scaled‐up to
UNAIDS
Fast‐Track targets. Outcomes over the intervention (2019 to 2030) and lifetime horizons included cumulative
HIV infect
ions, life‐years lived, costs and cost‐effectiveness. We assessed the incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios against the revealed willingness to pay ($500) and the standard (2017 per capita gross domestic product; $6161) cost‐effectiveness thresholds for South Africa.
Results
Compared to a reference scenario without Pr
EP
, implementation of dapivirine vaginal ring Pr
EP
, assuming 56% effectiveness and covering 50% of 22 to 29‐year‐old or high‐incidence women, prevented 10% or 11% of infections by 2030 respectively. Equivalent, unprioritized coverage (30%) prevented fewer infections (7%), whereas 50% coverage of female sex workers had the least impact (4%). Drug resistance attributable to Pr
EP
was modest (2% to 4% of people living with drug‐resistant
HIV
). Over the lifetime horizon, dapivirine Pr
EP
implementation among female sex workers was cost‐saving, whereas incidence‐based Pr
EP
cost $1898 per life‐year gained, relative to Pr
EP
among female sex workers and $989 versus the reference scenario. In a scenario of 37% Pr
EP
effectiveness, Pr
EP
had less impact, but prioritization to female sex workers remained cost‐saving. In uncertainty analysis, female sex worker Pr
EP
was consistently cost‐saving; and over the lifetime horizon, Pr
EP
cost less than $6161 per life‐year gained in over 99% of simulations, whereas incidence‐ and age‐based Pr
EP
cost below $500 per life‐year gained in 61% and 49% of simulations respectively. Pr
EP
adherence and efficacy, and the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy for
HIV
prevention, were the principal drivers of uncertainty in the cost‐effectiveness of Pr
EP
.
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