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The paper considers a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV) in the mosquito-bird-human zoonotic cycle. The model, which incorporates density-dependent contact rates between the mosquito population and the hosts (birds and humans), is rigorously analyzed using dynamical systems techniques and theories. These analyses reveal the existence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity) in WNV transmission dynamics. The epidemiological consequence of backward bifurcation is that the classical requirement of having the reproduction number less than unity, while necessary, is no longer sufficient for WNV elimination from the population. It is further shown that the model with constant contact rates can also exhibit this phenomenon if the WNV-induced mortality in the avian population is high enough. The model is extended to assess the impact of some anti-WNV control measures, by re-formulating the model as an optimal control problem with density-dependent demographic parameters. This entails the use of two control functions, one for mosquito-reduction strategies and the other for personal (human) protection, and redefining the demographic parameters as density-dependent rates. Appropriate optimal control methods are used to characterize the optimal levels of the two controls. Numerical simulations of the optimal control problem, using a set of reasonable parameter values, suggest that mosquito reduction controls should be emphasized ahead of personal protection measures.

A quadruplex reaction has been developed which amplifies the short tandem repeat (STR) loci HUM-VWA31/A, HUMTHO1, HUMF13A1 and HUMFES/FPS. Detection of the PCR products employs denaturing polyacrylamide gels coupled with fluorescent-based technology. This system has been evaluated for use in routine forensic casework and has been shown to be both robust and reproducible. The quadruplex reaction is as sensitive as the commercially available HLA DQ alpha Amplitype typing system and can be used on both degraded and aged material. The problems of environmental contamination have been shown to be limited provided strict procedural practices are followed-i.e. physical separation of sample extraction and amplified products; the use of dedicated equipment such as pipettes; the separation of amplification preparation area. The ability of the system to detect mixtures and the successful analysis of case stains has shown that this system is well suited as a tool for forensic investigation.

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Because of concern for cell damage, very low agitation energy inputs have been used in industrial animal cell bioreactors, typical values being two orders of magnitude less than those found in bacterial fermentations. Aeration rates are also very small. As a result, such bioreactors might be both poorly mixed and also unable to provide the higher oxygen up-take rates demanded by more intensive operation. This paper reports experimental studies both of K( L ) a and of mixing (via pH measurements) in bioreactors up to 8 m(3) at Wellcome and of scaled down models of such reactors at Birmingham. Alongside these physical measurements, sensitivity of certain cell lines to continuously controlled dO(2) has been studied and the oxygen up-take rates measured in representative growth conditions. An analysis of characteristic times and mixing theory, together with other recent work showing that more vigorous agitation and aeration can be used especially in the presence of Pluronic F-68, indicates ways of improving their performance. pH gradients offer a special challenge.

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Since 1995 the Forensic Science Service (FSS) has carried out DNA profiling of reference samples for the UK National DNA Database (1) and in forensic casework using two multiplex STR profiling systems (2,3). During this period, profiles with anomalous banding patterns, although comparatively rare, have been encountered regularly. The FSS has collected instances of triallelic patterns and aberrant diallelic patterns. A systematic examination of these patterns has provided insight into their underlying genetic cause. The triallelic patterns could be classified into two types based on the relative intensities of their component alleles. In the Type 1 pattern the alleles were of uneven intensity, whereas in the Type 2 pattern, all three alleles were of even intensity. Evidence is presented that the more frequent Type 1 pattern is the result of somatic mutation at a heterozygous locus, and the Type 2 pattern is the result of a localized chromosomal rearrangement at a heterozygous locus. Directly from the Type 1 pattern, it was possible to deduce the size difference between the progenitor and mutated allele. All mutational changes were found to be multiples of four nucleotides, suggesting the loss or addition of one or more tetrameric repeat units. Aberrant diallelic patterns were identified by analysts due to an unexpectedly large difference in intensity between alleles at a heterozygous locus. While some of these diallelic patterns are likely caused by the same genetic phenomena described above occurring at a homozygous locus, others are demonstrated to be caused by a mutation in the primer binding sequence, leading to a reduction in amplification efficiency of one allele. It is concluded that based on a visual inspection of a profile, it is possible to infer a likely genetic basis directly from the triallelic pattern. By contrast, the aberrant diallelic patterns can be due to any one of a number of possible genetic effects.