The Latest Common Agricultural Policy reform intends to expand and strengthen environmental and social support and to liberalise the delivery model carried out through strategic planning. This paper aims to assess the potential impacts of the new CAP reform on the main agricultural markets in Croatia. The impact assessment is analysed using the AGMEMOD model where, in addition to the baseline scenario, three scenarios of potential changes are developed and compared to the baseline. Changes in market patterns (production, yield and net trade) at the end of the simulated period are compared with the baseline scenario results by 2030. The reduction in support levels to production, abolishment of voluntary coupled supports and introduction of additional environmental constraints have a significant impact on the main Croatian agricultural markets. Crop markets prov to be less dependent on subsidies, so that market pattern changes will not mean the loss of Croatia’s net export status for soft wheat, maize and soy beans, while barley no longer holds this status. Livestock sectors, especially beef and dairy, in addition to demonstrating a distinct lack of competitiveness even before the Croatian accession to the EU, additionally suffer significant production volume losses along with an increase in imports. Although significant, changes to the Croatian agricultural market are not dramatic enough to cause a complete production breakdown by 2030.
The Osijek-Baranya County at the East part of Croatia, generally is known as lowland region in whose economy agriculture and food industry are of great importance. Eastern Croatia abounds in various traditional products, mainly based on smoked pork. The goal of this paper is to identify consumers' attitudes and behavior towards East Croatia traditional food products (TFP). Furthermore, the model for market power evaluation of each East Croatia TFP is created according to consumers¨ preferences and attitudes results. The research was performed in Osijek-Baranya County in spring 2019. The sample was consisted of 500 randomly chosen respondents older than 18 via self-fulfilled questionnaire survey. In paper is used descriptive, parametric and non-parametric statistics. People in East Croatia have a positive attitude to TFP of their region. Survey results related to supply, quality, demand and price willingness are used to modelling coefficient for East Croatia TFP commercialization. This coefficient can help producers and policy makers to decide easier about the most perspective production from market point of view. According to the survey results, production of kulen, cottage cheese, ham, honey and sausages are the most promising.
With Croatia?s accession to the European Union (EU), numerous changes have
taken place within the key agricultural markets. This primarily relates to
the introduction of Common Agricultural Policy measures and instruments, the
convergence of domestic agri-food product prices, the opening of the
domestic market and the producer?s adjustment to the business conditions
within the EU single market. Sophisticated tools such as partial equilibrium
(PE) econometric models are commonly used in the impact assessments of the
integration processes and for the development of medium-term market outlook
simulations. The aim of this research is to develop a medium-term outlook of
the soft wheat market in the Republic of Croatia up to 2030. As an
appropriate tool, the AGMEMOD (PE) model was used to provide baseline
simulations. The model results simulate future trends of main agrarian
policy indicators (sown area, production, yield, import, export and average
producer price) on the soft wheat market. The Croatian soft wheat market
outlook assumes ceteris paribus market conditions with the existing
agricultural policy structure until the end of the simulated period. The
main findings of the simulated outlook indicate a slight growth trend of
sown areas, continued growth of yield and production, along with soft wheat
exports increase in Croatia by 2030 compared to 2018. Furthermore, the soft
wheat degree of self-sufficiency in Croatia is expected to be 114% by the
end of the simulated period.
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