Cite this article: Johnson CK, Hitchens PL, Pandit PS, Rushmore J, Evans TS, Young CCW, Doyle MM. 2020 Global shifts in mammalian population trends reveal key predictors of virus spillover risk. Proc. R. Soc. B 287: 20192736. http://dx.Emerging infectious diseases in humans are frequently caused by pathogens originating from animal hosts, and zoonotic disease outbreaks present a major challenge to global health. To investigate drivers of virus spillover, we evaluated the number of viruses mammalian species have shared with humans. We discovered that the number of zoonotic viruses detected in mammalian species scales positively with global species abundance, suggesting that virus transmission risk has been highest from animal species that have increased in abundance and even expanded their range by adapting to human-dominated landscapes. Domesticated species, primates and bats were identified as having more zoonotic viruses than other species. Among threatened wildlife species, those with population reductions owing to exploitation and loss of habitat shared more viruses with humans. Exploitation of wildlife through hunting and trade facilitates close contact between wildlife and humans, and our findings provide further evidence that exploitation, as well as anthropogenic activities that have caused losses in wildlife habitat quality, have increased opportunities for animal-human interactions and facilitated zoonotic disease transmission. Our study provides new evidence for assessing spillover risk from mammalian species and highlights convergent processes whereby the causes of wildlife population declines have facilitated the transmission of animal viruses to humans.

Most human infectious diseases, especially recently emerging pathogens, originate from animals, and ongoing disease transmission from animals to people presents a significant global health burden. Recognition of the epidemiologic circumstances involved in zoonotic spillover, amplification, and spread of diseases is essential for prioritizing surveillance and predicting future disease emergence risk. We examine the animal hosts and transmission mechanisms involved in spillover of zoonotic viruses to date, and discover that viruses with high host plasticity (i.e. taxonomically and ecologically diverse host range) were more likely to amplify viral spillover by secondary human-to-human transmission and have broader geographic spread. Viruses transmitted to humans during practices that facilitate mixing of diverse animal species had significantly higher host plasticity. Our findings suggest that animal-to-human spillover of new viruses that are capable of infecting diverse host species signal emerging disease events with higher pandemic potential in that these viruses are more likely to amplify by human-to-human transmission with spread on a global scale.

Free-ranging nonhuman primates are frequent sources of zoonotic pathogens due to their physiologic similarity and in many tropical regions, close contact with humans. Many high-risk disease transmission interfaces have not been monitored for zoonotic pathogens due to difficulties inherent to invasive sampling of free-ranging wildlife. Non-invasive surveillance of nonhuman primates for pathogens with high potential for spillover into humans is therefore critical for understanding disease ecology of existing zoonotic pathogen burdens and identifying communities where zoonotic diseases are likely to emerge in the future. We developed a non-invasive oral sampling technique using ropes distributed to nonhuman primates to target viruses shed in the oral cavity, which through bite wounds and discarded food, could be transmitted to people. Optimization was performed by testing paired rope and oral swabs from laboratory colony rhesus macaques for rhesus cytomegalovirus (RhCMV) and simian foamy virus (SFV) and implementing the technique with free-ranging terrestrial and arboreal nonhuman primate species in Uganda and Nepal. Both ubiquitous DNA and RNA viruses, RhCMV and SFV, were detected in oral samples collected from ropes distributed to laboratory colony macaques and SFV was detected in free-ranging macaques and olive baboons. Our study describes a technique that can be used for disease surveillance in free-ranging nonhuman primates and, potentially, other wildlife species when invasive sampling techniques may not be feasible.

Infectious diseases pose one of the most significant threats to the survival of great apes in the wild. The critically endangered mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringei) is at high risk for contracting human pathogens because approximately 60% of the population is habituated to humans to support a thriving ecotourism program. Disease surveillance for human and non-human primate pathogens is important for population health and management of protected primate species. Here, we evaluate discarded plants from mountain gorillas and sympatric golden monkeys (Cercopithecus mitis kandti), as a novel biological sample to detect viruses that are shed orally. Discarded plant samples were tested for the presence of mammalian-specific genetic material and two ubiquitous DNA and RNA primate viruses, herpesviruses, and simian foamy virus. We collected discarded plant samples from 383 wild human-habituated mountain gorillas and from 18 habituated golden monkeys. Mammalian-specific genetic material was recovered from all plant species and portions of plant bitten or chewed by gorillas and golden monkeys. Gorilla herpesviral DNA was most consistently recovered from plants in which leafy portions were eaten by gorillas. Simian foamy virus nucleic acid was recovered from plants discarded by golden monkeys, indicating that it is also possible to detect RNA viruses from bitten or chewed plants. Our findings show that discarded plants are a useful non-invasive sampling method for detection of viruses that are shed orally in mountain gorillas, sympatric golden monkeys, and potentially other species. This method of collecting specimens from discarded plants is a new non-invasive sampling protocol that can be combined with collection of feces and urine to evaluate the most common routes of viral shedding in wild primates. Am. J. Primatol. 78:1222-1234, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.