Since the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrom Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) it has become increasingly clear that bats are important reservoirs of CoVs. Despite this, only 6% of all CoV sequences in GenBank are from bats. The remaining 94% largely consist of known pathogens of public health or agricultural significance, indicating that current research effort is heavily biased towards describing known diseases rather than the ‘pre-emergent’ diversity in bats. Our study addresses this critical gap, and focuses on resource poor countries where the risk of zoonotic emergence is believed to be highest. We surveyed the diversity of CoVs in multiple host taxa from twenty countries to explore the factors driving viral diversity at a global scale. We identified sequences representing 100 discrete phylogenetic clusters, ninety-one of which were found in bats, and used ecological and epidemiologic analyses to show that patterns of CoV diversity correlate with those of bat diversity. This cements bats as the major evolutionary reservoirs and ecological drivers of CoV diversity. Co-phylogenetic reconciliation analysis was also used to show that host switching has contributed to CoV evolution, and a preliminary analysis suggests that regional variation exists in the dynamics of this process. Overall our study represents a model for exploring global viral diversity and advances our fundamental understanding of CoV biodiversity and the potential risk factors associated with zoonotic emergence.

Cite this article: Johnson CK, Hitchens PL, Pandit PS, Rushmore J, Evans TS, Young CCW, Doyle MM. 2020 Global shifts in mammalian population trends reveal key predictors of virus spillover risk. Proc. R. Soc. B 287: 20192736. http://dx.Emerging infectious diseases in humans are frequently caused by pathogens originating from animal hosts, and zoonotic disease outbreaks present a major challenge to global health. To investigate drivers of virus spillover, we evaluated the number of viruses mammalian species have shared with humans. We discovered that the number of zoonotic viruses detected in mammalian species scales positively with global species abundance, suggesting that virus transmission risk has been highest from animal species that have increased in abundance and even expanded their range by adapting to human-dominated landscapes. Domesticated species, primates and bats were identified as having more zoonotic viruses than other species. Among threatened wildlife species, those with population reductions owing to exploitation and loss of habitat shared more viruses with humans. Exploitation of wildlife through hunting and trade facilitates close contact between wildlife and humans, and our findings provide further evidence that exploitation, as well as anthropogenic activities that have caused losses in wildlife habitat quality, have increased opportunities for animal-human interactions and facilitated zoonotic disease transmission. Our study provides new evidence for assessing spillover risk from mammalian species and highlights convergent processes whereby the causes of wildlife population declines have facilitated the transmission of animal viruses to humans.

The evolutionary origins of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are unknown. Current evidence suggests that insectivorous bats are likely to be the original source, as several 2c CoVs have been described from various species in the family Vespertilionidae. Here, we describe a MERS-like CoV identified from a Pipistrellus cf. hesperidus bat sampled in Uganda (strain PREDICT/PDF-2180), further supporting the hypothesis that bats are the evolutionary source of MERS-CoV. Phylogenetic analysis showed that PREDICT/PDF-2180 is closely related to MERS-CoV across much of its genome, consistent with a common ancestry; however, the spike protein was highly divergent (46% amino acid identity), suggesting that the two viruses may have different receptor binding properties. Indeed, several amino acid substitutions were identified in key binding residues that were predicted to block PREDICT/PDF-2180 from attaching to the MERS-CoV DPP4 receptor. To experimentally test this hypothesis, an infectious MERS-CoV clone expressing the PREDICT/PDF-2180 spike protein was generated. Recombinant viruses derived from the clone were replication competent but unable to spread and establish new infections in Vero cells or primary human airway epithelial cells. Our findings suggest that PREDICT/PDF-2180 is unlikely to pose a zoonotic threat. Recombination in the S1 subunit of the spike gene was identified as the primary mechanism driving variation in the spike phenotype and was likely one of the critical steps in the evolution and emergence of MERS-CoV in humans.

Here we describe the complete genome of a new ebolavirus, Bombali virus (BOMV) detected in free-tailed bats in Sierra Leone (little free-tailed (Chaerephon pumilus) and Angolan free-tailed (Mops condylurus)). The bats were found roosting inside houses, indicating the potential for human transmission. We show that the viral glycoprotein can mediate entry into human cells. However, further studies are required to investigate whether exposure has actually occurred or if BOMV is pathogenic in humans.

Most human infectious diseases, especially recently emerging pathogens, originate from animals, and ongoing disease transmission from animals to people presents a significant global health burden. Recognition of the epidemiologic circumstances involved in zoonotic spillover, amplification, and spread of diseases is essential for prioritizing surveillance and predicting future disease emergence risk. We examine the animal hosts and transmission mechanisms involved in spillover of zoonotic viruses to date, and discover that viruses with high host plasticity (i.e. taxonomically and ecologically diverse host range) were more likely to amplify viral spillover by secondary human-to-human transmission and have broader geographic spread. Viruses transmitted to humans during practices that facilitate mixing of diverse animal species had significantly higher host plasticity. Our findings suggest that animal-to-human spillover of new viruses that are capable of infecting diverse host species signal emerging disease events with higher pandemic potential in that these viruses are more likely to amplify by human-to-human transmission with spread on a global scale.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to

The processes promoting disease in wild animal populations are highly complex, yet identifying these processes is critically important for conservation when disease is limiting a population. By combining field studies with epidemiologic tools, we evaluated the relationship between key factors impeding southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) population growth: disease and resource limitation. This threatened population has struggled to recover despite protection, so we followed radio-tagged sea otters and evaluated infection with 2 disease-causing protozoal pathogens, Toxoplasma gondii and Sarcocystis neurona, to reveal risks that increased the likelihood of pathogen exposure. We identified patterns of pathogen infection that are linked to individual animal behavior, prey choice, and habitat use. We detected a high-risk spatial cluster of S. neurona infections in otters with home ranges in southern Monterey Bay and a coastal segment near San Simeon and Cambria where otters had high levels of infection with T. gondii. We found that otters feeding on abalone, which is the preferred prey in a resource-abundant marine ecosystem, had a very low risk of infection with either pathogen, whereas otters consuming small marine snails were more likely to be infected with T. gondii. Individual dietary specialization in sea otters is an adaptive mechanism for coping with limited food resources along central coastal California. High levels of infection with protozoal pathogens may be an adverse consequence of dietary specialization in this threatened species, with both depleted resources and disease working synergistically to limit recovery.Enhydra lutris nereis ͉ Sarcocystis neurona ͉ Toxoplasma gondii ͉ diet specialization ͉ wildlife disease

The prevalence and epidemiology of important viral (equine influenza virus [EIV], equine herpesvirus type 1 [EHV-1] and EHV-4) and bacterial (Streptococcus equi subspecies equi) respiratory pathogens shed by horses presented to equine veterinarians with upper respiratory tract signs and/or acute febrile neurological disease were studied. Veterinarians from throughout the USA were enrolled in a surveillance programme and were asked to collect blood and nasal secretions from equine cases with acute infectious upper respiratory tract disease and/or acute onset of neurological disease. A questionnaire was used to collect information pertaining to each case and its clinical signs. Samples were tested by real-time PCR for the presence of EHV-1, EHV-4, EIV and S equi subspecies equi. A total of 761 horses, mules and donkeys were enrolled in the surveillance programme over a 24-month study period. In total, 201 (26.4 per cent) index cases tested PCR-positive for one or more of the four pathogens. The highest detection rate was for EHV-4 (82 cases), followed by EIV (60 cases), S equi subspecies equi (49 cases) and EHV-1 (23 cases). There were 15 horses with double infections and one horse with a triple infection. The detection rate by PCR for the different pathogens varied with season and with the age, breed, sex and use of the animal.