Ecological niche models provide useful predictions of species distributions, but may fail to detect reductions in distribution due to factors other than habitat loss, such as hunting or trade. From 2001 to 2009, we conducted field-surveys along the Mexican Pacific coast to obtain presence-absence data for nine Psittacidae species. We applied Genetic Algorithm for Rule set Prediction (GARP) ecological niche modeling, using field-survey presence data to determine the potential current distribution of each species, and incorporated absence data to delineate extirpation areas. All parrot species showed a reduced current distribution, ranging from 9.6 to 79% reduction of estimated original distribution. The threatened and endemic species of Amazona oratrix, Amazona finschi, and Forpus cyanopygius suffered the greatest distribution reduction, higher than previously estimated by habitat-based models, suggesting that capture for trade may have caused extirpation of these species. The greatest extent of current distribution was occupied by Aratinga canicularis, Amazona albifrons and Ara militaris, which continue to occur throughout most of their original distribution. Amazona auropalliata, Aratinga strenua, and Brotogeris jugularis also occur throughout their restricted distribution in coastal Chiapas, and show a relatively small distribution reduction, but had the highest proportion of modified lands within their current distributions. Our results highlighted the regions of coastal Guerrero, northern Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa where parrot species have been extirpated even though GARP models predicted suitable habitat available. Ideally distribution models should be verified in the field to determine conservation priorities, and efforts should be directed to maintain populations of species with greatest distribution reductions.
Recibido el 4 de agosto de 2015; aceptado el 6 de abril de 2016 Disponible en Internet el 8 de agosto de 2016 ResumenSe estimó la distribución histórica y contemporánea para la familia Psittacidae en México utilizando la mayor base de datos integrada hasta ahora y modelos ecológicos de nicho. Los modelos se generaron mediante el algoritmo MaxEnt. Se utilizaron temperatura y precipitación y se analizó la vegetación disponible y las áreas naturales protegidas decretadas hasta 2015. Los modelos no presentaron errores de omisión y permiten contar con estimaciones actuales para cada especie. La mayor distribución se estima para Amazona albifrons y la menor para Amazona auropalliata. Los resultados indican que todas las especies han perdido hábitat, principalmente Ara macao, Amazona auropalliata y A. oratrix. Aunque los bosques tropicales predominan en su distribución, los bosques templados presentan altos porcentajes para 6 especies. La proporción de superficie protegida es superior a estimaciones del año 2000. La estimación precisa de la distribución de los psitácidos presentes en México tiene implicaciones de conservación a nivel internacional, ya que 6 especies son endémicas y 4 tendrían su mayor distribución potencial en México de acuerdo con cifras de la IUCN. Ante la pérdida de distribución, algunas especies presentan una elevada vulnerabilidad presente y futura, por lo que se debe examinar la relación entre aptitud ambiental de los modelos y patrones de abundancia poblacional. El uso de modelos de nicho ecológico para evaluar cambios en distribución asociados al cambio climático es necesario. Derechos Reservados © 2016 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Biología. Este es un artículo de acceso abierto distribuido bajo los términos de la Licencia Creative Commons CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. AbstractThe historic and contemporary distribution for the Psittacidae family in Mexico using the greatest database assembled until now was estimated. The ecological niche models were generated with the MaxEnt algorithm. Temperature and precipitation were used, as well as an analysis of vegetation and availability of protected areas established until 2015. The models did not present omission errors and allow to have updated estimates for each species. The species with the greatest potential distribution was Amazona albifrons, and Amazona auropalliata had the smallest one. The results * Autor para correspondencia.
The Endangered yellow-headed parrot Amazona oratrix along the Pacific coast of Mexico T i b e r i o C e s a r M o n t e r r u b i o -R i c o , K a t h e r i n e R e n t o n , J u a n M a n u e l O R T E G A -R O D R Í G U E Z , A l e j a n d r o P É r e z -A r t e a g a and R A M Ó N C a n c i n o -M u r i l l o Abstract The yellow-headed parrot Amazona oratrix is categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List but little is known about its distribution, particularly along the Pacific coast of Mexico. We used ecological niche models, with presence records from museum collections and historical sightings, overlain on vegetation maps, to predict the historical range of the yellow-headed parrot along the Pacific coast of Mexico. We compared this with the current range of the species, estimated with ecological niche models using presence-absence data from surveys during 2003-2008. We estimate that the range of the yellow-headed parrot along Mexico's Pacific coast has contracted by 79%. The current range may now cover only 18,957 km 2 , in three main areas. At one of these, a small isolated area on the coast of Jalisco, the species may be vulnerable to extirpation or genetic endogamy. There is a lack of conserved tropical semi-deciduous forest, which provides optimal habitat for reproduction of this parrot, within the current range of the species. Only the south, along the coast of Oaxaca, has extensive areas of this habitat. There are only three, small, protected areas within the species' current range. Conservation strategies need to be implemented to restore connectivity between the three main areas of the current range of the yellow-headed parrot on the Pacific coast of Mexico.
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