Community detection is a hot topic for researchers in the fields of graph theory, social networks, and biological networks. Generally speaking, a community refers to a group of densely linked nodes in the network. Nodes usually have more than one community label, indicating their multiple roles or functions in the network. Unfortunately, existing solutions aiming at overlapping community detection are not capable of scaling to large-scale networks with millions of nodes and edges. In this article, we propose a fast-overlapping-community-detection algorithm—FOX. In the experiment on a network with 3.9 millions nodes and 20 millions edges, the detection finishes in 41 min and provides the most qualified results. The second-fastest algorithm, however, takes almost five times longer to run. As for another network with 22 millions nodes and 127 millions edges, our algorithm is the only one that can provide an overlapping community detection result and it only takes 533 min. Our algorithm is a typical heuristic algorithm, measuring the closeness of a node to a community by counting the number of triangles formed by the node and two other nodes in the community. We also extend the exploitation of triangle to open-triangle, which enlarges the scale of the detected communities.
We execute a comparative analysis of machine learning models for the time-series forecasting of the sign of next-day cryptocurrency returns. We begin by compiling a proprietary dataset that encompasses a wide array of potential cryptocurrency valuation factors (price trends, liquidity, volatility, network, production, investor attention), subsequently identifying and evaluating the most significant factors. We apply eight machine learning models to the dataset, utilizing them as classifiers to predict the sign of next day price returns for the three largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization: bitcoin, ethereum, and ripple. We show that the most significant valuation factors for cryptocurrency returns are price trend variables, seven and thirty-day reversal, to be specific. We conclude that support vector machines result in the most accurate classifications for all three cryptocurrencies. Additionally, we find that boosted models like AdaBoost and XGBoost have the poorest classification accuracy. At length, we construct a probability-based trading strategy that secures either a daily long or short position on one of the three examined cryptocurrencies. Ultimately, the strategy yields a Sharpe of 2.8 and a cumulative log return of 3.72. On average, the strategy’s log returns outperformed standalone investments in all three cryptocurrencies by a factor of 5.64, and Sharpe ratios more than threefold.
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