Anthropogenic climate change is generating mismatches between the environmental conditions that populations historically experienced and those in which they reside. Understanding how climate change affects population performance is a critical scientific challenge. We combine a quantitative synthesis of field transplant experiments with a novel statistical approach based in evolutionary theory to quantify the effects of temperature and precipitation variability on population performance. We find that species' average performance is affected by both temperature and precipitation, but populations show signs of local adaptation to temperature only. Contemporary responses to temperature are strongly shaped by the local climates under which populations evolved, resulting in performance declines when temperatures deviate from historic conditions. Adaptation to other local environmental factors is strong, but temperature deviations as small as 2°C erode the advantage that these non-climatic adaptations historically gave populations in their home sites.

Hybrid incompatibilities occur when interactions between opposite-ancestry alleles at different loci reduce the fitness of hybrids. Most work on incompatibilities has focused on those that are 'intrinsic', meaning they affect viability and sterility in the laboratory. Theory predicts that ecological selection can also underlie hybrid incompatibilities, but tests of this hypothesis are scarce. In this article, we compiled genetic data for F2 hybrid crosses between divergent populations of threespine stickleback fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) that were born and raised in either the field (semi-natural experimental ponds) or the laboratory (aquaria). We tested for differences in excess heterozygosity between these two environments at ancestry informative loci—a genetic signature of selection against incompatibilities. We found that excess ancestry heterozygosity was elevated by approximately 3% in crosses raised in ponds compared to those raised in aquaria. Previous results from F1 hybrids in the field suggest that pond-specific (single-locus) heterosis is unlikely to explain this finding. Our study suggests that, in stickleback, a coarse signal of environment-dependent hybrid incompatibilities is reliably detectable and that extrinsic incompatibilities have evolved before intrinsic incompatibilities.