Land degradation and desertification has been ranked as a major environmental and social issue for the coming decades. Thus, the observation and early detection of degradation is a primary objective for a number of scientific and policy organisations, with remote sensing methods being a candidate choice for the development of monitoring systems. This paper reviews the statistical and ecological frameworks of assessing land degradation and desertification using vegetation index data. The development of multi-temporal analysis as a desertification assessment technique is reviewed, with a focus on how current practice has been shaped by controversy and dispute within the literature. The statistical techniques commonly employed are examined from both a statistical as well as ecological point of view, and recommendations are made for future research directions. The scientific requirements for degradation and desertification monitoring systems identified here are: (I) the validation of methodologies in a robust and comparable manner; and (II) the detection of degradation at minor intensities and magnitudes. It is also established that the multi-temporal analysis of vegetation index data can provide a sophisticated measure of ecosystem health and variation, and that, over the last 30 years, considerable progress has been made in the respective research.

Accurately mapping savannah land cover at the regional scale can provide useful input to policy decision making efforts regarding, for example, bush control or overgrazing, as well as to global carbon emissions models. Recent attempts have employed Earth observation data, either from optical or radar sensors, and most commonly from the dry season when the spectral difference between woody vegetation, crops and grasses is maximised. By far the most common practice has been the use of Landsat optical bands, but some studies have also used vegetation indices or SAR data. However, conflicting reports with regards to the effectiveness of the different approaches have emerged, leaving the respective land cover mapping community with unclear methodological pathways to follow. We address this issue by employing Landsat and Advanced Land Observing Satellite Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (ALOS PALSAR) data to assess the accuracy of mapping the main savannah land cover types of woody vegetation, grassland, cropland and non-vegetated land. The study area is in southern Africa, covering approximately 44,000 km 2 . We test the performance of 15 different models comprised of combinations of optical and radar data from the dry and wet seasons. Our results show that a number of models perform well and very similarly. The highest overall accuracy is achieved by the model that incorporates both optical and synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) data from both dry and wet seasons with an overall accuracy of 91.1% (±1.7%): this is almost a 10% improvement from using only the dry season Landsat data (81.7 ± 2.3%). The SAR-only models were capable of mapping woody cover effectively, achieving similar or lower omission and commission errors than the optical models, but other classes were detected with lower accuracies. Our main conclusion is that the combination of metrics from different sensors and seasons improves results and should be the preferred methodological pathway for accurate savannah land cover mapping, especially now with the availability of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data. Our findings can provide much needed assistance to land cover monitoring efforts to savannahs in general, and in particular to southern African savannahs, where a number of land cover change processes have been related with the observed land degradation in the region.

After a thirty-year hiatus, large-scale irrigation projects have returned to the development agenda in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Yet, the magnitude and drivers of past schemes performance remains poorly understood. We quantify the performance of 79 irrigation schemes from across SSA, measured as the proportion of proposed irrigated area delivered, by comparing planning documents with estimates of current scheme size from satellite-derived land cover maps. We find overwhelming evidence that investments have failed to deliver promised benefits; with schemes supporting a median 16% of proposed area, only 20 (25%) delivering >80%, and 16 (20%) completely inactive. Performance has not improved over six decades, and we find limited relationships with commonly stated causes of failure such as scheme size and climate.

Increasing attention is being directed at mapping the fractional woody cover of savannahs using Earth-observation data. In this study, we test the utility of Landsat TM/ ETM-based spectral-temporal variability metrics for mapping regional-scale woody cover in the Limpopo Province of South Africa, for 2010. We employ a machine learning framework to compare the accuracies of Random Forest models derived using metrics calculated from different seasons. We compare these results to those from fused Landsat-PALSAR data to establish if seasonal metrics can compensate for structural information from the PALSAR signal. Furthermore, we test the applicability of a statistical variable selection method, the recursive feature elimination (RFE), in the automation of the model building process in order to reduce model complexity and processing time. All of our tests were repeated at four scales (30, 60, 90, and 120 m-pixels) to investigate the role of spatial resolution on modelled accuracies. Our results show that multi-seasonal composites combining imagery from both the dry and wet seasons produced the highest accuracies (R 2 = 0.77, RMSE=9.4, at the 120 m scale). When using a single season of observations, dry season imagery performed best (R 2 =0.74, RMSE=9.9, at the 120 m

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Weather shocks, such as heatwaves, droughts, and excess rainfall, are a major cause of crop yield losses and food insecurity worldwide. Statistical or process-based crop models can be used to quantify how yields will respond to these events and future climate change. However, the accuracy of weather-yield relationships derived from crop models, whether statistical or process-based, is dependent on the quality of the underlying input data used to run these models. In this context, a major challenge in many developing countries is the lack of accessible and reliable meteorological datasets. Gridded weather datasets, derived from combinations of in situ gauges, remote sensing, and climate models, provide a solution to fill this gap, and have been widely used to evaluate climate impacts on agriculture in data-scarce regions worldwide. However, these reference datasets are also known to contain important biases and uncertainties. To date, there has been little research to assess how the choice of reference datasets influences projected sensitivity of crop yields to weather. We compare multiple freely available gridded datasets that provide daily weather data over the Indian sub-continent over the period 1983-2005, and explore their implications for estimates of yield responses to weather variability for key crops grown in the region (wheat and rice). Our results show that individual gridded weather datasets vary in their representation of historic spatial and temporal temperature and precipitation patterns across India. We show that these differences create large uncertainties in estimated crop yield responses and exposure to variability in growing season weather, which in turn, highlights the need for improved consideration of input data uncertainty in statistical studies that explore impacts of climate variability and change on agriculture.

While much has been published on recent rates of forest loss in the Sundaic lowlands, deforestation rates and patterns on Java's endemicrich mountains have been rather neglected. We used nearly 1,000 Landsat images to examine spatio-altitudinal and temporal patterns of forest loss in montane West Java over the last 28 years, and the effectiveness of protected areas in halting deforestation over that period. Around 40% of forest has been lost since 1988, the bulk occurring pre-2000 (2.5% per annum), falling to 1% per annum post-2007. Most deforestation has occurred at lower altitudes (< 1,000 m), both as attrition of the edges of forested mountain blocks as well as the near-total clearance of lower-altitude forested areas. Deforestation within protected areas was rife pre-2000 but greatly decreased thereafter, almost ceasing post-2007 in protected areas of high International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) status. While apparent recent protection against land clearance is welcome, it must be stressed that the area of remaining forest is only 5,234 km 2 , that most accessible lower-altitude forest has already disappeared, and that the extant montane forest is largely fragmented and isolated. The biological value of these forests is huge and without strong intervention, we anticipate imminent loss of populations of taxa such as the Javan Slow Loris Nycticebus javanicus and Javan Green Magpie Cissa thalassina.4th Open Science Meeting of the Global Land Programme -ConfTool Pr.

Time-series of vegetation greenness data, derived from Earth-observation imagery, have become a key source of information for studying large-scale environmental change. The ever increasing length of such series allows for a range of indicators to be derived and for increasingly complex analyses to be applied. This study presents an analysis of trends in vegetation productivity—measured using the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modelling System third generation (GIMMS3g) Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data—for African savannahs, over the 1982–2015 period. Two annual metrics were derived from the 34 year dataset: the monthly, smoothed NDVI (the aggregated growth season NDVI) and the associated Rain Use Efficiency (growth season NDVI divided by annual rainfall). These indicators were then used in a BFAST-based change-point analysis, allowing the direction of change over time to change and the detection of one major break in the time-series. We also analysed the role of land cover type and climate zone as associations of the observed changes. Both methods agree that vegetation greening was pervasive across African savannahs, although RUE displayed less significant changes than NDVI. Monotonically increasing trends were the most common trend type for both indicators. The continental scale of the greening may suggest global processes as key drivers, such as carbon fertilization. That NDVI trends were more dynamic than RUE suggests that a large component of vegetation trends is driven by precipitation variability. Areas of negative trends were conspicuous by their minimalism. However, some patterns were apparent. In the southern Sahel and West Africa, declining NDVI and RUE overlapped with intensive population and agricultural regions. Dynamic trend reversals, in RUE and NDVI, located in Angola, Zambia and Tanzania, coincide with areas where a long-term trend of forest degradation and agricultural expansion has recently given way to increases in woody biomass. Meanwhile in southern Africa, monotonic increases in RUE with varying NDVI trend types may be indicative of shrub encroachment. However, all these processes are small-scale relative to the GIMMS NDVI data, and reconciling these conflicting drivers is not a trivial task. Our study highlights the importance of considering multiple options when undertaking trend analyses, as different inputs and methods can reveal divergent patterns.