The TRAPPIST-1 system, consisting of an ultra-cool host star having seven known Earth-size planets will be a prime target for atmospheric characterization with JWST. However, the detectability of atmospheric molecular species may be severely impacted by the presence of clouds and/or hazes. In this work, we perform 3-D General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with the LMD Generic model supplemented by 1-D photochemistry simulations at the terminator with the Atmos model to simulate several possible atmospheres for TRAPPIST-1e, 1f and 1g: 1) modern 2 Fauchez et al.Earth, 2) Archean Earth, and 3) CO 2 -rich atmospheres. JWST synthetic transit spectra were computed using the GSFC Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG). We find that TRAPPIST-1e, 1f and 1g atmospheres, with clouds and/or hazes, could be detected using JWST's NIRSpec prism from the CO 2 absorption line at 4.3 µm in less than 15 transits at 3 σ or less than 35 transits at 5 σ. However, our analysis suggests that other gases would require hundreds (or thousands) of transits to be detectable. We also find that H 2 O, mostly confined in the lower atmosphere, is very challenging to detect for these planets or similar systems if the planets' atmospheres are not in a moist greenhouse state. This result demonstrates that the use of GCMs, self-consistently taking into account the effect of clouds and sub-saturation, is crucial to evaluate the detectability of atmospheric molecules of interest as well as for interpreting future detections in a more global (and thus robust and relevant) approach.
Upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) or the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) may soon be able to characterize, through transmission, emission or reflection spectroscopy, the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets orbiting nearby M dwarfs. One of the most promising candidates is the late M dwarf system TRAPPIST-1 which has seven known transiting planets for which Transit Timing Variation (TTV) measurements suggest that they are terrestrial in nature, with a possible enrichment in volatiles.Among these seven planets, TRAPPIST-1e seems to be the most promising candidate to have habitable surface conditions, receiving ∼ 66% of the Earth's incident radiation, and thus needing only modest greenhouse gas inventories to raise surface temperatures to allow surface liquid water to exist. TRAPPIST-1e is therefore one of the prime targets for JWST atmospheric characterization. In this context, the modeling of its potential atmosphere is an essential step prior to observation. Global Climate Models (GCMs) offer the most detailed way to simulate planetary atmospheres. However, intrinsic differences exist between GCMs which can lead to different climate prediction and thus observability of gas and/or cloud features in transmission and thermal emission spectra. Such differences should preferably be known prior to observations. In this paper we present a protocol to inter-compare planetary GCMs. Four testing cases are considered for TRAPPIST-1e but the methodology is applicable to other rocky exoplanets in the Habitable Zone. The four test cases included two land planets composed with 1 a modern Earth and pure CO 2 atmospheres, respectively, and two aqua planets with the same atmospheric compositions.Currently, there are four participating models (LMDG, ROCKE-3D, ExoCAM, UM), however this protocol is intended to let other teams participate as well.
Abstract. This paper presents a study of the impact of cirrus cloud heterogeneities on the thermal infrared brightness temperatures at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Realistic 3-D cirri are generated by a cloud generator based on simplified thermodynamic and dynamic equations and on the control of invariant scale properties. The 3-D thermal infrared radiative transfer is simulated with a Monte Carlo model for three typical spectral bands in the infrared atmospheric window. Comparisons of TOA brightness temperatures resulting from 1-D and 3-D radiative transfer show significant differences for optically thick cirrus (τ > 0.3 at 532 nm) and are mainly due to the plane-parallel approximation (PPA). At the spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km, two principal parameters control the heterogeneity effects on brightness temperatures: i) the optical thickness standard deviation inside the observation pixel, ii) the brightness temperature contrast between the top of the cirrus and the clear-sky atmosphere. Furthermore, we show that the difference between 1-D and 3-D brightness temperatures increases with the zenith view angle from two to ten times between 0 • and 60 • due to the tilted independent pixel approximation (TIPA).
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