No abstract

Background: In the context of the recent Greek economic crisis and its detrimental impact on healthcare system as well as the complete absence of a mechanism to map and plan human resources, a need for rethinking healthcare workforce management at a national level was emerged. Objectives: The aim of the study was to identify factors that influence the current and future demand for and supply of human resources in the Greek health system by specifying and empirically testing a projection model over the period 2015-2017. Methods: The projection model constituted a combination between a stock-and-flow model and a workforce-to-population ratio approach. This model was applied twice, once concerning total workforce and full track of new graduates and once concerning only public sector. Results: The first application of the model underpinned a sound and rampant oversupply of health professionals. On the other hand, the second application revealed a need for reinforcing public sector in terms of new hires especially of nursing and midwifery staff, and redistribution of all. Conclusions: The main results indicate that health policy makers could reach an optimal matching between future supply of and demand for healthcare workforce by adjusting the flexible supply components. This presupposes an accurate and stable system of data collection. On the demand side, it is also important to collect demographics and other health-related data that are more indicative of health needs than population metrics.