Background/ObjectivesUnderstanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon.MethodsWe used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections.ResultsThe spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3°C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double.ConclusionIn New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial heterogeneity in other countries.
BackgroundThe process and effectiveness of knowledge translation (KT) interventions targeting policymakers are rarely reported. In Cambodia, a low-income country (LIC), an intervention aiming to provide evidence-based knowledge on pneumonia to health authorities was developed to help update pediatric and adult national clinical guidelines. Through a case study, we assessed the effectiveness of this KT intervention, with the goal of identifying the barriers to KT and suggest strategies to facilitate KT in similar settings.MethodsAn extensive search for all relevant sources of data documenting the processes of updating adult and pediatric pneumonia guidelines was done. Documents included among others, reports, meeting minutes, and email correspondences. The study was conducted in successive phases: an appraisal of the content of both adult and pediatric pneumonia guidelines; an appraisal of the quality of guidelines by independent experts, using the AGREE-II instrument; a description and modeling of the KT process within the guidelines updating system, using the Unified Modeling Language (UML) tools 2.2; and the listing of the barriers and facilitators to KT we identified during the study.ResultsThe first appraisal showed that the integration of the KT key messages in pediatric and adult guidelines varied with a better efficiency in the pediatric guidelines. The overall AGREE-II quality assessments scored 37% and 44% for adult and pediatric guidelines, respectively. Scores were lowest for the domains of ‘rigor of development’ and ‘editorial independence.’ The UML analysis highlighted that time frames and constraints of the involved stakeholders greatly differed and that there were several missed opportunities to translate on evidence into the adult pneumonia guideline. Seventeen facilitating factors and 18 potential barriers to KT were identified. Main barriers were related to the absence of a clear mandate from the Ministry of Health for the researchers and to a lack of synchronization between knowledge production and policy-making.ConclusionsStudy findings suggest that stakeholders, both researchers and policy makers planning to update clinical guidelines in LIC may need methodological support to overcome the expected barriers.
Several algorithms Cas92, MS89, Run92, DDHL94a, DDHL95, GMM95] have been proposed to automatically insert a class into an inheritance hierarchy. But actual hierarchies all include overriden and overloaded properties that these algorithms handle either very partially or not at all. Partially handled means handled provided
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