BACKGROUND Drug-resistant tuberculosis threatens recent gains in the treatment of tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection worldwide. A widespread epidemic of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis is occurring in South Africa, where cases have increased substantially since 2002. The factors driving this rapid increase have not been fully elucidated, but such knowledge is needed to guide public health interventions. METHODS We conducted a prospective study involving 404 participants in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with a diagnosis of XDR tuberculosis between 2011 and 2014. Interviews and medical-record reviews were used to elicit information on the participants’ history of tuberculosis and HIV infection, hospitalizations, and social networks. Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates underwent insertion sequence (IS)6110 restriction-fragment– length polymorphism analysis, targeted gene sequencing, and whole-genome sequencing. We used clinical and genotypic case definitions to calculate the proportion of cases of XDR tuberculosis that were due to inadequate treatment of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (i.e., acquired resistance) versus those that were due to transmission (i.e., transmitted resistance). We used social-network analysis to identify community and hospital locations of transmission. RESULTS Of the 404 participants, 311 (77%) had HIV infection; the median CD4+ count was 340 cells per cubic millimeter (interquartile range, 117 to 431). A total of 280 participants (69%) had never received treatment for MDR tuberculosis. Genotypic analysis in 386 participants revealed that 323 (84%) belonged to 1 of 31 clusters. Clusters ranged from 2 to 14 participants, except for 1 large cluster of 212 participants (55%) with a LAM4/KZN strain. Person-to-person or hospital-based epidemiologic links were identified in 123 of 404 participants (30%). CONCLUSIONS The majority of cases of XDR tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, an area with a high tuberculosis burden, were probably due to transmission rather than to inadequate treatment of MDR tuberculosis. These data suggest that control of the epidemic of drug-resistant tuberculosis requires an increased focus on interrupting transmission. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others.)

Diarrhoeal disease is a significant contributor to child morbidity and mortality, particularly in the developing world. Poor sanitation, a lack of personal hygiene and inadequate water supplies are known risk factors for diarrhoeal disease. Since risk factors may vary by population or setting, we evaluated the prevalence of diarrhoeal disease at the household level using a questionnaire to better understand household-level risk factors for diarrhoea in selected rural areas in South Africa. In a sub-sample of dwellings, we measured the microbial quality of drinking water. One in five households had at least one case of diarrhoea during the previous summer. The most widespread source of drinking water was a stand-pipe (inside yard) (45%) followed by an indoor tap inside the dwelling (29%). Storage of water was common (97%) with around half of households storing water in plastic containers with an opening large enough to fit a hand through. After adjusting for confounders, the occurrence of diarrhoea was statistically significantly associated with sourcing water from an indoor tap (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 2.73, 95% CI: 2.73, 1.14–6.56) and storing cooked/perishable food in non-refrigerated conditions (AOR: 2.17, 95% CI: 2.17, 1.44–3.26). The highest total coliform counts were found in water samples from kitchen containers followed by stand-pipes. Escherichia coli were most often detected in samples from stand-pipes and kitchen containers. One in four households were at risk of exposure to contaminated drinking water, increasing the susceptibility of the study participants to episodes of diarrhoea. It is imperative that water quality meets guideline values and routine monitoring of quality of drinking water is done to minimise diarrhoea risk in relevant rural communities. The security of water supply in rural areas should be addressed as a matter of public health urgency to avoid the need for water storage.

Even with a reduction in the metal concentrations in river water from South Africa to Mozambique, the potential to cause adverse human health impacts from direct use of polluted river water is evident in both countries.

Diarrheal disease is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality globally, particularly in children under 5 years of age. Factors related to diarrheal disease incidence include infection, malnutrition, and exposure to contaminated water and food. Climate factors also contribute to diarrheal disease. We aimed to explore the relationship between temperature, precipitation and diarrhoea case counts of hospital admissions among vulnerable communities living in a rural setting in South Africa. We applied ‘contour analysis’ to visually examine simultaneous observations in frequencies of anomalously high and low diarrhoea case counts occurring in a season, and assigning colours to differences that were statistically significant based on chi-squared test results. Children under 5 years of age were especially vulnerable to diarrhoea during very dry, hot conditions as well as when conditions were wetter than usual. We saw an anomalously higher number of diarrhoea cases during ‘warmer than usual’ conditions in the dry winter season, with average winter temperatures in Limpopo being from about 5 to 10 °C. As for ‘wetter than usual’ conditions, we saw an anomalously higher number of diarrhoea cases during ‘drier than usual’ conditions for the winter and spring. The lagged association seen in cumulative rainfall could not be distinguished in the same way for temperature-related variables (indicating rainfall had a larger impact on higher cases of diarrhoea), nor for the older age group of 5 years and older. Dry conditions were associated with diarrhoea in children under 5 years of age; such conditions may lead to increased water storage, raising the risks of water contamination. Reduced use of water for personal hygiene and cleaning of outdoor pit latrines also affect sanitation quality. Rural communities require adequate and uninterrupted water provision, and healthcare providers should raise awareness about potential diarrhoeal risks, especially during the dry season as well as during wintertime when conditions are warmer than usual.

Climate change has resulted in rising temperature trends which have been associated with changes in temperature extremes globally. Attendees of Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 agreed to strive to limit the rise in global average temperatures to below 2 °C compared to industrial conditions, the target being 1.5 °C. However, current research suggests that the African region will be subjected to more intense heat extremes over a shorter time period, with projections predicting increases of 4–6 °C for the period 2071–2100, in annual average maximum temperatures for southern Africa. Increased temperatures may exacerbate existing chronic ill health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes-related conditions. Exposure to extreme temperatures has also been associated with mortality. This study aimed to consider the relationship between temperatures in indoor and outdoor environments in a rural residential setting in a current climate and warmer predicted future climate. Temperature and humidity measurements were collected hourly in 406 homes in summer and spring and at two-hour intervals in 98 homes in winter. Ambient temperature, humidity and windspeed were obtained from the nearest weather station. Regression models were used to identify predictors of indoor apparent temperature (AT) and to estimate future indoor AT using projected ambient temperatures. Ambient temperatures will increase by a mean of 4.6 °C for the period 2088–2099. Warming in winter was projected to be greater than warming in summer and spring. The number of days during which indoor AT will be categorized as potentially harmful will increase in the future. Understanding current and future heat-related health effects is key in developing an effective surveillance system. The observations of this study can be used to inform the development and implementation of policies and practices around heat and health especially in rural areas of South Africa.

Malaria is an environmentally driven disease. In order to quantify the spatial variability of malaria transmission, it is imperative to understand the interactions between environmental variables and malaria epidemiology at a micro-geographic level using a novel statistical approach. The random forest (RF) statistical learning method, a relatively new variable-importance ranking method, measures the variable importance of potentially influential parameters through the percent increase of the mean squared error. As this value increases, so does the relative importance of the associated variable. The principal aim of this study was to create predictive malaria maps generated using the selected variables based on the RF algorithm in the Ehlanzeni District of Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. From the seven environmental variables used [temperature, lag temperature, rainfall, lag rainfall, humidity, altitude, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)], altitude was identified as the most influential predictor variable due its high selection frequency. It was selected as the top predictor for 4 out of 12 months of the year, followed by NDVI, temperature and lag rainfall, which were each selected twice. The combination of climatic variables that produced the highest prediction accuracy was altitude, NDVI, and temperature. This suggests that these three variables have high predictive capabilities in relation to malaria transmission. Furthermore, it is anticipated that the predictive maps generated from predictions made by the RF algorithm could be used to monitor the progression of malaria and assist in intervention and prevention efforts with respect to malaria.

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BackgroundNoncommunicable diseases (NCDs) including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), diabetes, cancer and chronic lung disease are increasingly emerging as major contributors to morbidity and mortality in developing countries. For example, in South Africa, 195 people died per day between 1997 and 2004 from CVDs related causes. Access to efficient and effective health facility and care is an important contributing factor to overall population health and addressing prognosis, care and management CVD disease burden. This study aimed to spatially evaluate geographic health care access of people diagnosed with CVD to health facilities and to evaluate the density of the existing health facility network in South Africa.MethodsData was obtained from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) conducted in 4 waves (phases) between 2008 and 2014. The participants who responded as having heart problems that were diagnosed by a health practitioner were extracted for use in this study. Network analyst in ArcGIS ® was used to generate a least-cost path, which refers to the best path that one can travel. The residential locations of participants diagnosed with heart problems were put into the network analysis model as origins and the location of health facilities were destinations. District averages were used to protect the identity of studied participants.ResultsThere were a total of 51, 42, 43, 43 health districts out the 52 that had recorded subjects with a heart condition in the 2008, 2010–2011, 2012 and 2014–2015 waves, respectively. The mean distance from a case household to a health facility per wave was 2, 2.3, 2.1 and 2.1 km in 2008, 2010–2011 and 2014–2015 respectively. The maximum individual distances travelled per wave were 41.4 km, 40,5 km, 44,2 km and 39.6 km for the 2008, 2010–2011, 2012 and 2014–2015 waves respectively. For district level analysis, participants with CVD residing in the districts found to be among the poorest in the country travelled the longest distances. These were located in the provinces of Limpopo and KwaZulu Natal. It was also found that districts with large proportions of their population living in rural settings had among the lowest densities of health facilities. Significant percentages of study participants were exposed to numerous CVD risk factors, the commonly reported one being high blood pressure. A lack of regular exercise was also commonly reported in each of the waves.ConclusionA lack of accessible healthcare in already impoverished municipalities could result in an increase lack of timely diagnosis, CVD case management. This could result in increased CVD-related morbidity and mortality. GIS methods have the potential to assist national health programs to develop policies that target issues such as areas or populations being underserved by health facilities and populations that must travel long distances to receive healthcare. These policies will be key in preventing and controlling the emerging CVD burden through an accessible primary healthcare system for early detection and case ...