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BackgroundThe number of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infected people eligible for initiation on antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is increasing. ART programmatic success requires that patients who are taking ART remain on treatment and are followed up regularly. This study investigated factors associated with being lost to follow-up, in a cohort of patients enrolled in a pharmacovigilance study in South Africa.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational cohort study performed at one of the Medunsa National Pharmacovigilance Centre’s (MNPC) ART sentinel surveillance sites. Loss to Follow-up (LTFU) was defined as “a patient who had been followed up at the sentinel site, who had not had contact with the health facility for 180 days or more since their last recorded expected date of return or if there were 180 days or more between the expected date of return and the next clinic visit”.ResultsOut of 595 patients, 65.5 % (n = 390) were female and 23.4 % (n = 139) were LTFU. The median time on ART before LTFU was 21.5 months (interquartile range: 12.9 – 34.7 months). The incidence rate of LTFU was 103 per 1000 person-years in the first year on ART and increased to 405 per 1000 person-years in the eighth year of taking ART. Factors associated with becoming LTFU included not having a committed partner (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR): 2.9, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI):1.19-6.97, p = 0.019), being self-employed (aHR: 13.9, 95 % CI:2.81 - 69.06, p = 0.001), baseline CD4 count > 200 cells/ml (aHR: 3.8, 95 % CI: 1.85-7.85, p < 0.001), detectable last known Viral Load (VL) (aHR: 3.6, 95 % CI:1.98 - 6.52, p < 0.001) and a last known World Health Organisation clinical stage three or four (aHR: 2.0, 95 % CI:1.22-3.27, p = 0.006). Patients that previously had an ART adverse event had a lower risk (aHR: 0.6, 95 % CI: 0.38 - 0.99, p = 0.044) of becoming LTFU than those that had not.ConclusionThe incidence rate of LTFU increases with additional years on ART. Intensified measures to improve patient retention on ART must be prioritised with increasing patient time on ART and in patients that are at increased risk of becoming lost to follow-up.

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The paper presents a hierarchical discrete time survival model for the analysis of the 2000 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey data to assess the determinants of transition to marriage among women in Malawi. The model explicitly accounts for the unobserved heterogeneity by using family and community random effects with cross-level correlation structure. A nonparametric technique is used to model the base-line discrete hazard dynamically. Parameters of the model are computed by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The results show that rising age at marriage is a combination of birth cohort and education effects, depends considerably on the family and to some extent on the community in which a woman resides and the correlation between family and community random effects is negative. These results confirm a downward trend in teenage marriage and that raising women's education levels in sub-Saharan Africa has the beneficial effect of increasing age at marriage, and by implication reducing total fertility rates. The negative correlation between family and community random effects has policy implications in that targeting communities with an intervention to increase age at first marriage may not necessarily yield reduced fertility levels in individual families. A campaign that is geared towards individual families would achieve the desired goals. Overall, the findings point to the need for the Government in Malawi to enact public policies which are geared at vastly improving women's education at higher levels. The variation in marriage rates over families poses problems in delivering the policy, since particular policies must be devised for specific groups of families to accomplish the required social and health objectives. Copyright 2005 Royal Statistical Society.

BackgroundLittle research has examined whether alcohol reduction interventions improve antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence and HIV treatment outcomes. This study assesses the efficacy of an intervention for reducing alcohol use among HIV patients on ART who are hazardous/harmful drinkers. Specific aims include adapting a blended Motivational Interviewing (MI) and Problem Solving Therapy (PST) intervention for use with HIV patients; evaluating the efficacy of the intervention for reducing alcohol consumption; and assessing counsellors’ and participants’ perceptions of the intervention.Methods/DesignA randomised controlled trial will evaluate the intervention among ART patients in public hospital-based HIV clinics in Tshwane, South Africa. We will recruit patients who are HIV-positive, on ART for at least 3 months, and classified as harmful/hazardous drinkers using the AUDIT-3. Eligible patients will be randomly assigned to one of three conditions. Patients in the experimental group will receive the MI-PST intervention to reduce harmful/hazardous alcohol use. Patients in the equal-attention wellness intervention group will receive an intervention focused on addressing health risk behaviours. Patients in the control condition will receive treatment as usual. Participants will complete an interviewer-administered questionnaire at baseline and 3, 6 and 12 months post-randomisation to assess alcohol consumption, ART adherence, physical and mental health. We will also collect biological specimens to test for recent alcohol consumption, CD4 counts and HIV RNA viral loads. The primary outcome will be reduction in the volume of alcohol consumed. Secondary outcomes include reduction in harmful/hazardous use of alcohol, reduction in biological markers of drinking, increase in adherence rates, reductions in viral loads, and increases in CD4 T-cell counts. A process evaluation will ascertain counsellors’ and participants’ perceptions of the acceptability and effectiveness of the interventions.DiscussionWe have obtained ethical approval and approval from the study sites and regional and provincial health departments. The study has implications for clinicians, researchers and policy makers as it will provide efficacy data on how to reduce harmful/hazardous alcohol consumption among HIV patients and will shed light on whether reducing alcohol consumption impacts on HIV treatment adherence and other outcomes.Trial registrationPan African Clinical Trials Register Number: PACTR201405000815100.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-500) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

This paper examines the socio-economic drivers of land use and land cover change and assesses the impacts of such changes to rural livelihoods in the Zambezi region of northern Namibia. We carried out a longitudinal analysis of Landsat imagery of land use and land cover. The analysis revealed that the amount of land in the region covered by forest increased significantly in the period from 1991 to 2010 whilst crop/grass land decreased. Focus group meetings, key informant interviews and semi-structured interviews covering 424 households stratified by gender were used. The results show that natural resource uses are vitally important in the rural livelihoods. The drivers of land use and land cover change are agricultural expansion, population increase and illegal logging. Livelihood coping strategies include piecework, food aid, borrowing from relatives and wild food collection. By gender stratification, piecework contributed 37 and 63 % while

Objectives: The aims of this study were to model jointly the incidence rates of six smoking related cancers in the Yorkshire region of England, to explore the patterns of spatial correlation amongst them, and to estimate the relative weight of smoking and other shared risk factors for the relevant disease sites, both before and after adjustment for socioeconomic background (SEB). Methods:Data on the incidence of oesophagus, stomach, pancreas, lung, kidney, and bladder cancers between 1983 and 2003 were extracted from the Northern & Yorkshire Cancer Registry database for the 532 electoral wards in the Yorkshire region. Using postcode of residence, each case was assigned an area-based measure of SEB using the Townsend index. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for each cancer site and their correlations investigated. The joint analysis of the spatial variation in incidence used a Bayesian shared-component model. Three components were included to represent differences in smoking (for all six sites), bodyweight/ obesity (for oesophagus, pancreas and kidney cancers) and diet/alcohol consumption (for oesophagus and stomach cancers). Results:The incidence of cancers of the oesophagus, pancreas, kidney, and bladder was relatively evenly distributed across the region. The incidence of stomach and lung cancers was more clustered around the urban areas in the south of the region, and these two cancers were significantly associated with higher levels of area deprivation. The incidence of lung cancer was most impacted by adjustment for SEB, with the rural/urban split becoming less apparent. The component representing smoking had a larger effect on cancer incidence in the eastern part of the region. The effects of the other two components were small and disappeared after adjustment for SEB. Conclusion:This study demonstrates the feasibility of joint disease modelling using data from six cancer sites. Incidence estimates are more precise than those obtained without smoothing. This methodology may be an important tool to help authorities evaluate healthcare system performance and the impact of policies.

SummaryThe aim of this study was to assess spatial co‐occurrence of acute respiratory infections (ARI), diarrhoea and stunting among children of the age between 6 and 59 months in Somalia. Data were obtained from routine biannual nutrition surveys conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization 2007–2010. A Bayesian hierarchical geostatistical shared component model was fitted to the residual spatial components of the three health conditions. Risk maps of the common spatial effects at 1×1 km resolution were derived. The empirical correlations of the enumeration area proportion were 0.37, 0.63 and 0.66 for ARI and stunting, diarrhoea and stunting and ARI and diarrhoea, respectively. Spatially, the posterior residual effects ranged 0.03–20.98, 0.16–6.37 and 0.08–9.66 for shared component between ARI and stunting, diarrhoea and stunting and ARI and diarrhoea, respectively. The analysis showed clearly that the spatial shared component between ARI, diarrhoea and stunting was higher in the southern part of the country. Interventions aimed at controlling and mitigating the adverse effects of these three childhood health conditions should focus on their common putative risk factors, particularly in the South in Somalia.