Predicting weather by numerical models have been used extensively in research works for Middle East, mostly for dust storms, rain showers, and flash floods with a less deal of interest on snow precipitation. In this study, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs) that was developed in South Korea was used to predict a rare snowfall event occurred in three countries in Middle East (Syria, Jordan and Iraq) located between (25-65 oE; 12-42 oN) in year 2008. The main aim of this study was to test GRIMs efficiency, which would be used for the first time in Middle East, to make predictions of weather parameters such as pressure, temperature, and relative humidity especially in the selected area. In addition, the study would investigate the conditions that caused the snowfall event. GRIMs model was installed, compiled, and run on a Linux platform by using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset as initial conditions on 0.5 × 0.5 grid resolution to make simulations for three days at intervals of three hours. The output of the model was evaluated by making comparisons with actual data obtained from the GFS Agency dataset and the model showed its efficiency. The snowfall event was synoptically discussed in details. It was found that the snowfall event was a result of fast succession systems of a strong cold high pressure and then a deep warm low pressure. The high instability in the region had led to form large cumuliform clouds with snow precipitation as a rare event in very long period.

The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is an atmospheric simulation system designed for both research and operational applications. This worldwide used model requires a sophisticated modeling experience and computing skills. In this study, WRF model was used to predict many atmospheric parameters based on the initial conditions extracted from NOMADS data sets. The study area is basically the region surrounded by the longitudes and latitudes: 15o-75o E and 10.5o-45o N which typically includes the Middle East region. The model was installed on Linux platform with a grid size of 10 km in the X and Y directions. A low pressure trough was tracked in its movement from west to east via the Middle East during the period from 1 to 7 January 2010 as a case study of the WRF model. MATLAB and NCAR Command Language (NCL) were used to display the model output. To evaluate the forecasted parameters and patterns, some comparisons were made between the predicted and actual weather charts. Wind speeds and directions in the prognostic and actual charts of 700 hPa were in agreement. However, the predicted values of geopotential heights in WRF are somewhat overestimate the actual ones. This may be attributed to the differences in the data sources and data analysis methods of the two data agencies, NOMADS and ECMWF.

This study addresses estimation of emission rates and concentrations of SO2, CO and NO2 gases emitted from Daura Refinery (DR), Daura Power Plant (DPP) and South of Baghdad Power Plant (SBPP) by calculating the fuel discharge. The estimations were made by using the Gaussian plume model of dispersion at distances within 10 km from the pollution source for January, April, July and October 2017 under two stability conditions, slightly stable and moderately unstable. The effect of wind speed and direction as well as the ambient temperature of the surrounding air on the dispersion and transmission of air pollutants were also investigated. It was found that the unstable conditions are better for dispersing out atmospheric pollutants. The results showed that Zafarania District was the most affected by pollutants emitted from DR and BSPP while Daura District was more affected by DPP due to the prevailing wind direction. It was also found that an increase in wind speed leads to a decrease in the concentration of pollutants. The concentration of pollutants is inversely proportional to the height of the chimney, the speed of the gas leaving the chimney, while it is directly proportional to the diameter of the chimney. DPP has higher emission rates than DR and SBPP while at the surface level, the pollutants concentrations emitted from DR are greater than those emitted from DPP and SBPP.

Carbon monoxide (CO) is the poisonous gas of a potential health hazard. Since the continuous measurements of this unsafe gas are not available in Iraq, this research is an attempt to study the distribution of columns gas over Iraq. The data which used in this study is Total Column of Carbon Monoxide (TCCO) in unit kilogram per square meter from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Data are representative of all Iraqi areas and the surrounding regions. The study area consists of 961 grid points. MATLAB program was used to calculate and plot spatial analysis data. The analyzed data of the southern and the middle parts of Iraq (Baghdad and Basra) were in consistence with the general seasonal cycle of TCCO in the Northern Hemisphere. They exhibit a significant enhancement in winter and spring and small values of TCCO in summer. The typical seasonal TCCO variations over the Rutba station are less noticeable, where there is an obvious decrease in TCCO in all seasons. This remarkable feature suggests that the Mosul and Rutba stations may be blanketed by regional pollution, while Basra area (South Baghdad and Iraq region) may be influenced by TCCO plumes transported either vertically or horizontally, which can be considered industry region or from biomass burning.

Directing solar panels in a way that collects the largest possible amount of solar energy is still attracting a lot of attention due to the continuous need to get clean, inexpensive renewable energy. Iraq is one of the countries characterized by the abundance of solar energy but the investment in this field has been far below ambition. In this study, an application developed with the visual basic programing language was used to compute precisely various solar angles and parameters , as a powerful tool for engineers and researchers. The outputs of the model were tested and discussed in detail. The air mass values were also computed for three cities: Mosul, Baghdad, and Basra. The results showed that the best time to acquire the solar radiation would be from 10 am to 2 pm (local time), the period that has the lowest values of air mass. Additional useful calculations that can be estimated by the application were the terrestrial irradiances from four empirical models for the clear sky: Roledo-Soler, Adnot, Kasten – Czeplak, and Berger-Duffie. The calculated values of terrestrial irradiance were compared with observed data measured by automatic weather station. The application simulated  the actual values with some deviations due to the existence of clouds and aerosols. Kasten – Czeplak model was recommended to be used in Iraq since it was the best model to simulate the measured values. The comparison between the model’s output and the measured values on a daily basis on the 21st of June showed  good agreement. The study suggested that the solar panels should  face  the south direction with a  change of the tilt angle of the panels from 25o in June to a value of 60o each month towards the coldest months by an increment of  5 degrees.

In this study, an analysis of the synoptic characteristics, causes and mechanisms of Kahlaa tornado event was carried out. This tornado occurred on 10:30 UTC (1:30 pm Iraq Local Time) on 14 April 2016 to the north of Kahlaa town in Maysan governorate. We analyzed surface and upper charts, weather conditions, the damage indices, the dynamical features and the instability of the tornado. The analysis showed that there was a low pressure system which was an extension of the Monsoon low in addition to a supercell thunderstorm and a jet stream aloft. The cold trough and high relative vorticity at 500 hPa level, the humid warm wind blowing from the south and the dry cold wind from the north contributed to the initiation of the tornado. According to the damage amount, Kahlaa tornado can be classified as EF2 degree (considerable) on Enhanced Fujita scale. Three indices were calculated to estimate the instability of the tornado. The values of the convective available potential energy (CAPE), K-index, and lifted index were (≥2500 J/kg), (35.3 oC), and (-7), respectively. All these indices confirmed the instability required to form severe thunderstorm essential to tornado formation. Although the forecasting of tornadoes occurrence is difficult, there would be indications that may lead to expect of occurrence. These may include the availability of moisture, heat, and significant wind direction changes with altitude. However, the vital factors were the existence of high instability and a supercell thunderstorm.