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In an experiment using the Patriot air defense training simulator, we found that the order in which the same information was presented to experienced Patriot officers significantly affected their probability estimates, identification judgments, and engagement decisions. In all cases the results represented a primacy effect, contradicting the recency effect predictions of the Hogarth and Einhorn (1992) model. In the present study we found that early in an aircraft's track history, the order effect is caused by the overweighting of prior information; later in the history, the late order effect is caused by participants reinterpreting the meaning of information based on what preceded it. These findings help to explain the differential effectiveness of a proposed display and the importance of naturalistic research for testing the generality of models of decision making.

We used decision analysis to define requirements for the US Marine Corps' mobile protected weapons system during the concept selection phase of the systems acquisition process; to analyze the mix of air defense weapons for the forward area air defense of the US Army during the demonstration and validation phase; to assist in the evaluation by US Army and the Marine Corps of competing proposals for the light armored vehicle in the full-scale development phase; to determine which service (army or air force) should be the proponent for the PATRIOT missile system in the production and fielding phase; and to provide cost-benefit priorities of projects to the Marine Corps in the program objectives memorandum process, which allocates resources throughout the systems acquisition cycle.

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In this experiment we investigated the effect of different real-time expert system interfaces on operators' cognitive processes and performance. The results supported the principle that a real-time expert system's interface should focus operators' attention on where it is required most. However following this principle resulted in unanticipated consequences. In particular, it led to inferior performance for less critical, yet important cases requiring operators' attention. For such cases operators performed better with an interface that let them select where they wanted to focus their attention. Having a rule generation capability improved performance with all interfaces but did so less than hypothesized. In all cases performance with different interfaces and a rule generation capability was explained by the effect of the interfaces on cognitive process measures.