Predicting plant community responses to changing environmental conditions is a key element of forecasting and mitigating the effects of global change. Disturbance can play an important role in these dynamics, by initiating cycles of secondary succession and generating opportunities for communities of long-lived organisms to reorganize in alternative configurations. This study used landscape-scale variations in environmental conditions, stand structure, and disturbance from an extreme fire year in Alaska to examine how these factors affected successional trajectories in boreal forests dominated by black spruce. Because fire intervals in interior Alaska are typically too short to allow relay succession, the initial cohorts of seedlings that recruit after fire largely determine future canopy composition. Consequently, in a dynamically stable landscape, postfire tree seedling composition should resemble that of the prefire forest stands, with little net change in tree composition after fire. Seedling recruitment data from 90 burned stands indicated that postfire establishment of black spruce was strongly linked to environmental conditions and was highest at sites that were moist and had high densities of prefire spruce. Although deciduous broadleaf trees were absent from most prefire stands, deciduous trees recruited from seed at many sites and were most abundant at sites where the fires burned severely, consuming much of the surface organic layer. Comparison of pre-and postfire tree composition in the burned stands indicated that the expected trajectory of black spruce self-replacement was typical only at moist sites that burned with low fire severity. At severely burned sites, deciduous trees dominated the postfire tree seedling community, suggesting these sites will follow alternative, deciduous-dominated trajectories of succession. Increases in the severity of boreal fires with climate warming may catalyze shifts to an increasingly deciduous-dominated landscape, substantially altering landscape dynamics and ecosystem services in this part of the boreal forest.

Arctic tundra soils store large amounts of carbon (C) in organic soil layers hundreds to thousands of years old that insulate, and in some cases maintain, permafrost soils. Fire has been largely absent from most of this biome since the early Holocene epoch, but its frequency and extent are increasing, probably in response to climate warming. The effect of fires on the C balance of tundra landscapes, however, remains largely unknown. The Anaktuvuk River fire in 2007 burned 1,039 square kilometres of Alaska's Arctic slope, making it the largest fire on record for the tundra biome and doubling the cumulative area burned since 1950 (ref. 5). Here we report that tundra ecosystems lost 2,016 ± 435 g C m(-2) in the fire, an amount two orders of magnitude larger than annual net C exchange in undisturbed tundra. Sixty per cent of this C loss was from soil organic matter, and radiocarbon dating of residual soil layers revealed that the maximum age of soil C lost was 50 years. Scaled to the entire burned area, the fire released approximately 2.1 teragrams of C to the atmosphere, an amount similar in magnitude to the annual net C sink for the entire Arctic tundra biome averaged over the last quarter of the twentieth century. The magnitude of ecosystem C lost by fire, relative to both ecosystem and biome-scale fluxes, demonstrates that a climate-driven increase in tundra fire disturbance may represent a positive feedback, potentially offsetting Arctic greening and influencing the net C balance of the tundra biome.

Abstract. Fungi play key roles in ecosystems as mutualists, pathogens, and decomposers. Current estimates of global species richness are highly uncertain, and the importance of stochastic vs. deterministic forces in the assembly of fungal communities is unknown. Molecular studies have so far failed to reach saturated, comprehensive estimates of fungal diversity. To obtain a more accurate estimate of global fungal diversity, we used a direct molecular approach to census diversity in a boreal ecosystem with precisely known plant diversity, and we carefully evaluated adequacy of sampling and accuracy of species delineation. We achieved the first exhaustive enumeration of fungi in soil, recording 1002 taxa in this system. We show that the fungus : plant ratio in Picea mariana forest soils from interior Alaska is at least 17:1 and is regionally stable. A global extrapolation of this ratio would suggest 6 million species of fungi, as opposed to leading estimates ranging from 616 000 to 1.5 million. We also find that closely related fungi often occupy divergent niches. This pattern is seen in fungi spanning all major functional guilds and four phyla, suggesting a major role of deterministic niche partitioning in community assembly. Extinctions and range shifts are reorganizing biodiversity on Earth, yet our results suggest that 98% of fungi remain undescribed and that many of these species occupy unique niches.

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.