Context. Studies of long-term solar activity and variability require knowledge of the past evolution of the solar surface magnetism. The archives of full-disc Ca II K observations that have been performed more or less regularly at various sites since 1892 can serve as an important source of such information. Aims. We derive the plage area evolution over the last 12 solar cycles by employing data from all Ca II K archives that are publicly available in digital form, including several as-yet-unexplored Ca II K archives. Methods. We analysed more than 290 000 full-disc Ca II K observations from 43 datasets spanning the period between 1892–2019. All images were consistently processed with an automatic procedure that performs the photometric calibration (if needed) and the limb-darkening compensation. The processing also accounts for artefacts affecting many of the images, including some very specific artefacts, such as bright arcs found in Kyoto and Yerkes data. Our employed methods have previously been tested and evaluated on synthetic data and found to be more accurate than other methods used in the literature to treat a subset of the data analysed here. Results. We produced a plage area time-series from each analysed dataset. We found that the differences between the plage areas derived from individual archives are mainly due to the differences in the central wavelength and the bandpass used to acquire the data at the various sites. We empirically cross-calibrated and combined the results obtained from each dataset to produce a composite series of plage areas. The ’backbone’ approach was used to bridge the series together. We have also shown that the selection of the backbone series has little effect on the final composite of the plage area. We quantified the uncertainty of determining the plage areas with our processing due to shifts in the central wavelength and found it to be less than 0.01 in fraction of the solar disc for the average conditions found on historical data. We also found the variable seeing conditions during the observations to slightly increase the plage areas during the activity maxima. Conclusions. We provide the most complete so far time series of plage areas based on corrected and calibrated historical and modern Ca II K images. Consistent plage areas are now available on 88% of all days from 1892 onwards and on 98% from 1907 onwards.
Scoliosis—structural lateral curvature of the spine—affects around four children per 1,000. The MAGEC system comprises a magnetically distractible spinal rod implant and an external remote controller, which lengthens the rod; this system avoids repeated surgical lengthening. Rod implants brace the spine internally and are lengthened as the child grows, preventing worsening of scoliosis and delaying the need for spinal fusion. The Medical Technologies Advisory Committee at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) selected the MAGEC system for evaluation in a NICE medical technologies guidance. Six studies were identified by the sponsor (Ellipse Technologies Inc.) as being relevant to the decision problem. Meta-analysis was used to compare the clinical evidence results with those of one conventional growth rod study, and equal efficacy of the two devices was concluded. The key weakness was selection of a single comparator study. The External Assessment Centre (EAC) identified 16 conventional growth rod studies and undertook meta-analyses of relevant outcomes. Its critique highlighted limitations around study heterogeneity and variations in baseline characteristics and follow-up duration, precluding the ability to draw firm conclusions. The sponsor constructed a de novo costing model showing that MAGEC rods generated cost savings of £9,946 per patient after 6 years, compared with conventional rods. The EAC critiqued and updated the model structure and inputs, calculating robust cost savings of £12,077 per patient with MAGEC rods compared with conventional rods over 6 years. The year of valuation was 2012. NICE issued a positive recommendation as supported by the evidence (Medical Technologies Guidance 18).
A method that enables the automated mapping and characterization of dune fields on Mars is described. Using CTX image mosaics, the introduced Object-based Dune Analysis (OBDA) technique produces an objective and reproducible mapping of dune morphologies over extensive areas. The data set thus obtained integrates a large variety of data, allowing a simple cross-analysis of dune patterns, spectral and morphometric information, and mesoscale wind models. Two dune fields, located in Gale crater and Ganges Chasma, were used to test and validate the methodology. The segmentation of dune-related morphologies is highly efficient, reaching overall accuracies of 95%. In addition, we show that the automated segmentation of slipface traces is also possible with expected accuracies of 85-90%. A qualitative and quantitative comparison of the final outputs with photointerpretations is performed, and the precision of the directional characterization of the dune patterns is evaluated. We demonstrate a good agreement between the OBDA outputs and the photointerpreted dune morphologies, with local trend deviations below 45°f or 80-95% of the mapped areas. Because the developed algorithm is tuned for the recognition of linear features from the imagery, the slipfaces of small barchans can be preferentially overlooked owing to their small extent at the spatial resolution of the CTX mosaics. Dune types composed of longer linear morphologies are much better represented, including correct mapping of secondary structures. Having proved the effectiveness and accuracy of the mapping procedure, we discuss its future applications for the improvement of dune catalogs on Mars.
A sunspot catalogue was published by the Coimbra Astronomical Observatory (Portugal), now named Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory of the University of Coimbra, for the period 1929-1941. We digitalized data included in that catalogue and provide a machine-readable version. We show the reconstructions for the (total and hemispheric) sunspot number index and sunspot area according to this catalogue, comparing it with the sunspot number index (version 2) and Balmaceda sunspot area series (Balmaceda et al., J. Geophys. Res. 114, A07104, 2009). Moreover, we also compared the Coimbra catalogue with records made at the Royal Greenwich Observatory. The results demonstrate that the historical catalogue compiled by the Coimbra Astronomical Observatory contain reliable sunspot data and therefore can be considered for studies about solar activity.
The total electron content (TEC) over the Iberian Peninsula was studied using data from two locations obtained both by Global Navigation Satellite System receivers and an ionosonde. The principal component analysis applied to the TEC data allowed us to extract two main modes. Each mode is characterized by a daily TEC variation of a certain type (principal component [PC]) and its amplitude for each of the studied days (given by the empirical orthogonal functions [EOFs]). The variations of these modes as well as the original TEC data were studied in relation to four strongest geomagnetic storms of 2015 and three geomagnetic disturbances of lower amplitude observed during the same months. EOFs were found to correlate well with space weather parameters characterizing solar UV and XR fluxes, number of the solar flares, parameters of the solar wind, and geomagnetic indices. Multiple regression models were constructed to fit EOFs using combinations of the space weather parameters with a lag from 0 to 2 days. Combining the regression models of EOFs with the corresponding PCs, we reconstructed TEC variations as a function of space weather parameters observed in previous days. The possibility to use such reconstructions for the TEC forecasting was also studied. The results of the data analysis can be used to develop regional empirical models allowing prediction of ionospheric response to different forcings, for example, geomagnetic storms. In particular, the method called
The development of the Deception Island volcano caldera under control of the Bransfield Basin sinistral strike-slip tectonic regime (…
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