Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator–prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy‐deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate‐only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km2) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km2 (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate‐only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator–prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards – a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.

No abstract

Rangelands cover around half of the planet’s land mass and provide vital ecosystem services to over a quarter of humanity. The Himalayan rangelands, part of a global biodiversity hotspot is among the most threatened regions in the world. In rangelands of many developing nations policies banning grazing in protected areas is common practice. In 1998, the Indian state of Sikkim, in the Eastern Himalaya, enacted a grazing ban in response to growing anthropogenic pressure in pastures and forests that was presumably leading to degradation of biodiversity. Studies from the region demonstrate the grazing ban has had some beneficial results in the form of increased carbon stocks and regeneration of some species of conservation value but the ban also resulted in negative outcomes such as reduced household incomes, increase in monocultures in lowlands, decreased manure production in a state that exclusively practices organic farming, spread of gregarious species, and a perceived increase in human wildlife conflict. This paper explores the impact of the traditional pastoral system on high elevation plant species in Lachen valley, one of the few regions of Sikkim where the grazing ban was not implemented. Experimental plots were laid in along an elevation gradient in grazed and ungrazed areas. Ungrazed areas are part of pastures that have been fenced off (preventing grazing) for over a decade and used by the locals for hay formation. I quantified plant species diversity (Species richness, Shannon index, Simpson diversity index, and Pielou evenness index) and ecosystem function (above ground net primary productivity ANPP). The difference method using movable exlosure cages was used in grazing areas to account for plant ANPP eaten and regrowth between grazing periods). The results demonstrate that grazing significantly contributes to greater plant species diversity (Species richness, Shannon index, Simpson diversity index, and Pielou evenness index) and ecosystem function (using above ground net primary productivity as an indicator). The multidimensional scaling and ANOSIM (Analysis of Similarities) pointed to significant differences in plant species assemblages in grazed and ungrazed areas. Further, ecosystem function is controlled by grazing, rainfall and elevation. Thus, the traditional transhumant pastoral system may enhance biodiversity and ecosystem function. I argue that a complete restriction of open grazing meet neither conservation nor socioeconomic goals. Evidence based policies are required to conserve the rich and vulnerable biodiversity of the region.

The analyses support the suggestion that most angiosperms may fall into two categories, one with large flowers and many seeded fruits and the other with small flowers and single or few seeded fruits, and kin selection within ovaries may explain the observed patterns.