Aspholm. 2015. Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north. ABSTRACT. Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues.

The methodology of socially-oriented observations (SOO) started to be developed within the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007–2008 PPS Arctic project. The main objective of SOO is to increase knowledge and observation of changes in quality of life conditions and to reveal trends in human capital and capacities. SOO are needed also to assess and monitor trends in resilience and sustainability of coupled socio-ecological systems and to predict changes. Moreover they should help to identify and monitor the implementation of local plans and adaptation strategies that will stimulate human capital improvement and act not only as the agent of economic modernisation, but as important directions for building resilient socio-ecological systems. The first experiments to implement SOO methodology were carried out in the municipal regions of the Russian north in different biomes (from coastal tundra to southern taiga zone) of Murmansk, Arkhangelsk Oblast and the Republic of Komi. SOO approaches, based both on local people's perceptions and statistics, help to identify the main issues and targets for life quality, human capital and environment improvement and thus to distinguish the most important changes and trends for further monitoring. Key issues were identified in the state of human capital and quality of life conditions: depopulation, increasing unemployment, aging, declining physical and mental health, quality of education, loss of traditional knowledge, marginalisation etc. Human induced disturbances such as uncontrolled forests cuttings and poaching are increasing while observed changes in climate and biota have become additional factors influencing land use and overall sustainability. The main aim of this paper is to show how the methodology of SOO may help to delineate main thresholds arising within socio-ecological systems for their resilience assessment.

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Monitoring of social-ecological systems dynamics and sustainability is of high importance in a rapidly changing Arctic. The goal of this essay is to discuss and articulate the principles for designing a suitable Arctic sustainability monitoring framework based on the convergence between resilience thinking and sustainable development paradigms. We propose to integrate sustainability monitoring into the socially-oriented observations (SOO) methodologies in order to design Arctic sustainability monitoring as a transdisciplinary participatory activity that results in both co-production of sustainability knowledge and building more sustainable and resilient Arctic social-ecological systems by enabling continuous observation and informed decision-making. Special attention is given to approaches for developing sustainability indicators to monitor trends in Arctic social-ecological systems. It is argued that sustainability monitoring is a valuable component of the Arctic sustainability knowledge system that integrates social and natural sciences and engages Indigenous, local, and traditional knowledge, entrepreneurship, education, and decision-making. Bringing together diverse knowledge systems is the primary route to collectively pursue sustainability in a holistic, polycentric, multifaceted, participatory, and knowledge-driven manner. Transdisciplinary SOO approaches and methods are specifically discussed.

It is becoming more evident that in the twenty-first century we are living in the new era of Anthropocene, where humans attained the ability to alter planetary processes, bringing new urgency to the systematic understanding of current and future social and environmental changes [...]