Building on two sources of exogenous shocks to analyst coverage-broker closures and mergers, we explore the causal effects of analyst coverage on mitigating managerial expropriation of outside shareholders. We find that as a firm experiences an exogenous decrease in analyst coverage, shareholders value internal cash holdings less, its CEO receives higher excess compensation, its management is more likely to make value-destroying acquisitions, and its managers are more likely to engage in earnings management activities. Importantly, we find that most of these effects are mainly driven by the firms with smaller initial analyst coverage and less product market competition. We further find that after exogenous brokerage exits, a CEO's total and excess compensation become less sensitive to firm performance in firms with low initial analyst coverage. These findings are consistent with the monitoring hypothesis, specifically that financial analysts play an important governance role in scrutinizing management behavior, and the market is pricing an increase in expected agency problems after the loss in analyst coverage.

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To develop a machine learning model to investigate the discriminative power of whole-brain gray-matter (GM) images derived from primary dysmenorrhea (PDM) women and healthy controls (HCs) during the pain-free phase and further evaluate the predictive ability of contributing features in predicting the variance in menstrual pain intensity. Sixty patients with PDM and 54 matched female HCs were recruited from the local university. All participants underwent the head and pelvic magnetic resonance imaging scans to calculate GM volume and myometrium-apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) during their periovulatory phase. Questionnaire assessment was also conducted. A support vector machine algorithm was used to develop the classification model. The significance of model performance was determined by the permutation test. Multiple regression analysis was implemented to explore the relationship between discriminative features and intensity of menstrual pain. Demographics and myometrium ADC-based classifications failed to pass the permutation tests. Brain-based classification results demonstrated that 75.44% of subjects were correctly classified, with 83.33% identification of the patients with PDM (P < 0.001). In the regression analysis, demographical indicators and myometrium ADC accounted for a total of 29.37% of the variance in pain intensity. After regressing out these factors, GM features explained 60.33% of the remaining variance. Our results suggested that GM volume can be used to discriminate patients with PDM and HCs during the pain-free phase, and neuroimaging features can further predict the variance in the intensity of menstrual pain, which may provide a potential imaging marker for the assessment of menstrual pain intervention.

BackgroundSeasonal influenza epidemics occur annually with bimodality in southern China and unimodality in northern China. Regional differences exist in surveillance data collected by the National Influenza Surveillance Network of the Chinese mainland. Qualitative and quantitative analyses on the spatiotemporal rules of the influenza virus's activities are needed to lay the foundation for the surveillance, prevention and control of seasonal influenza.MethodsThe peak performance analysis and Fourier harmonic extraction methods were used to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of the seasonal influenza virus activity and to obtain geographic divisions. In the first method, the concept of quality control was introduced and robust estimators were chosen to make the results more convincing. The dominant Fourier harmonics of the provincial time series were extracted in the second method, and the VARiable CLUSter (VARCLUS) procedure was used to variably cluster the extracted results. On the basis of the above geographic division results, three typical districts were selected and corresponding sinusoidal models were applied to fit the time series of the virological data.ResultsThe predominant virus during every peak is visible from the bar charts of the virological data. The results of the two methods that were used to obtain the geographic divisions have some consistencies with each other and with the virus activity mechanism. Quantitative models were established for three typical districts: the south1 district, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangxi and Fujian; the south2 district, including Hunan, Hubei, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang; and the north district, including the 14 northern provinces except Qinghai. The sinusoidal fitting models showed that the south1 district had strong annual periodicity with strong winter peaks and weak summer peaks. The south2 district had strong semi-annual periodicity with similarly strong summer and winter peaks, and the north district had strong annual periodicity with only winter peaks.

In the extant literature of business cycle predictions, the signals for business cycle turning points are generally issued with a lag of at least 5 months. In this paper, we make use of a novel and timely indicator—the Google search volume data—to help to improve the timeliness of business cycle turning point identification. We identify multiple query terms to capture the real‐time public concern on the aggregate economy, the credit market, and the labor market condition. We incorporate the query indices in a Markov‐switching framework and successfully “nowcast” the peak date within a month that the turning occurred. (JEL E37, G17)

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