Geographic Divisions and Modeling of Virological Data on Seasonal Influenza in the Chinese Mainland during the 2006–2009 Monitoring Years

Zou, Jianfeng; Yang, Hua; Cui, Hengjian; Shu, Yuelong; Xu, Peipei; Xu, Cuiling; Chen, Tao

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0058434

Cited by 18 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The three influenza surveillance systems indicated that there were epidemics peaks in winter and similar seasonal pattern. The influenza epidemics typically appeared as a single-peak around January in Gansu; this finding is consistent with other northern provinces in China 1 , 6 . Seasonal decomposition, however, showed differences in long-term trends of the three systems.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

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Comparing the similarity and difference of three influenza surveillance systems in China

Yang

Liu

Wei

et al. 2018

Sci Rep

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Three main surveillance systems (laboratory-confirmed, influenza-like illness (ILI) and nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System (NIDRIS)) have been used for influenza surveillance in China. However, it is unclear which surveillance system is more reliable in developing influenza early warning system based on surveillance data. This study aims to evaluate the similarity and difference of the three surveillance systems and provide practical knowledge for improving the effectiveness of influenza surveillance. Weekly influenza data for the three systems were obtained from March 2010 to February 2015. Spearman correlation and time series seasonal decomposition were used to assess the relationship between the three surveillance systems and to explore seasonal patterns and characteristics of influenza epidemics in Gansu, China. Our results showed influenza epidemics appeared a single-peak around January in all three surveillance systems. Time series seasonal decomposition analysis demonstrated a similar seasonal pattern in the three systems, while long-term trends were observed to be different. Our research suggested that a combination of the NIDRIS together with ILI and laboratory-confirmed surveillance is an informative, comprehensive way to monitor influenza transmission in Gansu, China. These results will provide a useful information for developing influenza early warning systems based on influenza surveillance data.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

“…Influenza is associated with considerable mortality and morbidity worldwide. Influenza surveillance systems are important tools for monitoring and evaluating transmission of influenza 1 – 5 . Gansu is relatively poor province, which public health capacity is backward compared with the economically developed provinces.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing the similarity and difference of three influenza surveillance systems in China

Yang

Liu

Wei

et al. 2018

Sci Rep

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“…This pattern was also confirmed in other regions in the Northern Hemisphere (Baumgartner et al, 2012). The seasonal decomposition analysis indicated that the influenza B peak in the spring occurred later than in other subtropical cities in South China (Qi et al, 2016;Zou et al, 2013) and earlier than in Okinawa, Japan (Iha et al, 2016). Shanghai is an international metropolis with frequent population movements and a very large immigrant population.…”

Section: Characteristics Of Influenza Epidemicssupporting

confidence: 59%

Understanding the complex seasonality of seasonal influenza A and B virus transmission: Evidence from six years of surveillance data in Shanghai, China

Zhu

et al. 2019

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

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Understanding the complexity of influenza subtype seasonality is critical to promoting a suitable vaccination program. The aim of this study was to identify and compare the seasonality and epidemiological features of seasonal influenza subtypes after the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic and to lay a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors affecting seasonal influenza virus transmission. Methods: Influenza-like illness (ILI) case surveillance was conducted in two sentinel hospitals in Pudong New Area, Shanghai between 2012 and 2018. Weekly data on ILI cases were analyzed. A time-series seasonal decomposition analysis was used to reveal the seasonality of influenza and epidemiological features among different subtypes. Results: In total, 10 977 ILI patients were enrolled of whom 2385 (21.7%) had laboratory-confirmed influenza. Compared to influenza A (16.3%), influenza B (5.4%) was less frequently detected among the ILI patients (p < 0.001). Semiannual epidemic peaks were identified in four of the years during the 6-year study period, while only one annual epidemic peak was found in the other two years. An epidemic peak occurred in each winter season, and a secondary peak also occasionally occurred in summer or spring. A/ H3N2 predominated in both summer and winter, while A/H1N1, B/Yamagata, and B/Victoria circulated almost exclusively in winter or spring. Two lineages of influenza B seemed to predominate in alternating years. Conclusions: This study highlights the complexity of seasonal influenza virus activity in a subtropical region of China, presenting both semiannual and annual epidemic peaks in different years. The results of this study may provide further insight into possible improvements in the timing of influenza vaccination in Shanghai, China.

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“…In addition, we applied a seasonal linear regression model to estimate the peak timing of respiratory diseases by assuming the existence of annual and semi-annual cycles [ 21 , 22 ]. The sinusoidal model was used for fitting, because it is widely used in the sequence with distinct periodicity, and each parameter has an explicit explanation [ 23 ]. For example, the weekly positive rates of influenza were fitted as follows: in which influenza( t ) represents the weekly proportions of influenza-positive cases; t is an index for week; a, b, c, d, e are the intercepts and seasonality coefficients; and ε ( t ) is assumed to be normally distributed errors.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible interference between seasonal epidemics of influenza and other respiratory viruses in Hong Kong, 2014–2017

Zheng

Song

et al. 2017

BMC Infect Dis

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BackgroundUnlike influenza viruses, little is known about the prevalence and seasonality of other respiratory viruses because laboratory surveillance for non-influenza respiratory viruses is not well developed or supported in China and other resource-limited countries. We studied the interference between seasonal epidemics of influenza viruses and five other common viruses that cause respiratory illnesses in Hong Kong from 2014 to 2017.MethodsThe weekly laboratory-confirmed positive rates of each virus were analyzed from 2014 to 2017 in Hong Kong to describe the epidemiological trends and interference between influenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza virus (PIV), adenovirus, enterovirus and rhinovirus. A sinusoidal model was established to estimate the peak timing of each virus by phase angle parameters.ResultsSeasonal features of the influenza viruses, PIV, enterovirus and adenovirus were obvious, whereas annual peaks of RSV and rhinovirus were not observed. The incidence of the influenza viruses usually peaked in February and July, and the summer peaks in July were generally caused by the H3 subtype of influenza A alone. When influenza viruses were active, other viruses tended to have a low level of activity. The peaks of the influenza viruses were not synchronized. An epidemic of rhinovirus tended to shift the subsequent epidemics of the other viruses.ConclusionThe evidence from recent surveillance data in Hong Kong suggests that viral interference during the epidemics of influenza viruses and other common respiratory viruses might affect the timing and duration of subsequent epidemics of a certain or several viruses.

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Geographic Divisions and Modeling of Virological Data on Seasonal Influenza in the Chinese Mainland during the 2006–2009 Monitoring Years

Cited by 18 publications

References 14 publications

Comparing the similarity and difference of three influenza surveillance systems in China

Comparing the similarity and difference of three influenza surveillance systems in China

Understanding the complex seasonality of seasonal influenza A and B virus transmission: Evidence from six years of surveillance data in Shanghai, China

Possible interference between seasonal epidemics of influenza and other respiratory viruses in Hong Kong, 2014–2017

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