SummaryBackgroundUnderweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.MethodsWe pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).FindingsRegional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys wor...

SummaryBackgroundRaised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.MethodsFor this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.FindingsWe pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence.InterpretationDuring the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.FundingWellcome Trust.

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. MethodsWe used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.Findings The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including

Abstract-Observational studies have shown inconsistent results for the association between blood pressure and cancer risk. We investigated the association in 7 cohorts from Norway, Austria, and Sweden. In total, 577799 adults with a mean age of 44 years were followed for, on average, 12 years. Incident cancers were 22184 in men and 14744 in women, and cancer deaths were 8724 and 4525, respectively. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios of cancer per 10-mmHg increments of midblood pressure, which corresponded with 0.7 SDs and, for example, an increment of systolic/diastolic blood pressure of 130/80 to 142/88 mmHg. All of the models used age as the time scale and were adjusted for possible confounders, including body mass index and smoking status. In men, midblood pressure was positively related to total incident cancer (hazard ratio per 10 mmHg increment: 1.07 [95% CI: 1.04 -1.09]) and to cancer of the oropharynx, colon, rectum, lung, bladder, kidney, malignant melanoma, and nonmelanoma skin cancer. In women, midblood pressure was not related to total incident cancer but was positively related to cancer of the liver, pancreas, cervix, uterine corpus, and malignant melanoma. A positive association was also found for cancer mortality, with HRs per 10-mmHg increment of 1.12 (95% CI: 1.08 -1.15) for men and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02-1.11) for women. These results suggest a small increased cancer risk overall in men with elevated blood pressure level and a higher risk for cancer death in men and women. ypertension accounts for Ϸ5% of the current global disease burden because of increasing longevity and prevalence of contributing factors, such as obesity, physical inactivity, and an unhealthy diet.1 Increasing age and metabolic aberrations related to obesity, for example, hyperglycemia and hypercholesterolemia, have been linked to increased risk of cancer, 2,3 and several lines of evidence also suggest a link between hypertension and cancer risk.4-8 However, there are only a few observational studies of the association between blood pressure (BP) and cancer incidence and mortality, which show inconsistent findings. 9,10In a meta-analysis based on 10 longitudinal studies of in total 47 119 participants, hypertension was related to a 23% increased risk of cancer mortality, 9 and in another study including 17 498 participants, BP was inversely associated with mortality from leukemia and pancreatic cancer but positively associated with mortality attributed to liver and rectal cancer. 11 The association between hypertension and incident cancer has also been found to differ by cancer site. 10These studies were hampered by small study size and/or lack of information on potential confounders, such as smoking habits and obesity. Moreover, assessment of BP on a single occasion entails a substantial random error attributed to measurement error and within-person variation of BP levels.12,13 Such inaccuracy of exposure assessment dilutes the association with outcome, that is, regression dilution bias. 12,14,15 Risk estimates ...

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3–19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8–144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13410.001

Tanja Stocks and colleagues carry out an analysis of six European cohorts and confirm that abnormal glucose metabolism is linked with increased risk of cancer overall and at specific sites.

Background: Few studies have assessed the metabolic syndrome (MetS) as an entity in relation to breast cancer risk, and results have been inconsistent. We aimed to examine the association between MetS factors (individually and combined) and risk of breast cancer incidence and mortality.Methods: Two hundred ninety thousand women from Austria, Norway, and Sweden were enrolled during 1974-2005, with measurements of height, weight, blood pressure, and levels of glucose, cholesterol, and triglycerides. Relative risks (RR) of breast cancer were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression for each MetS factor in quintiles and for standardized levels (z-scores) and for a composite z-score for the MetS.Results: There were 4,862 incident cases of breast cancer and 633 deaths from breast cancer identified. In women below age 50, there was a decreased risk of incident cancer for the MetS (per 1-unit increment of z-score; RR, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.90) as well as for the individual factors (except for glucose). The lowest risks were seen among the heaviest women. In women above age 60, there was an increased risk of breast cancer mortality for the MetS (RR, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.45) and for blood pressure and glucose. The strongest association with mortality was seen for increased glucose concentrations.Conclusions: The MetS was associated with a decreased risk of incident breast cancer in women below age 50 with high body mass index, and with an increased risk of breast cancer mortality in women above 60.Impact: Lifestyle interventions as recommended for cardiovascular disease prevention may be of value to prevent breast cancer mortality in postmenopausal women. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(7); 1737-45.

The epidemiological evidence for an obesity-cancer association is solid, whereas the association between obesity-associated lipoprotein levels and cancer is less evident. We investigated circulating levels of Apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1), Apolipoprotein B (ApoB), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) and HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) and association to risk of overall cancer and common cancer forms. The Malm€ o Diet and Cancer Study, a population-based prospective cohort study, enrolled 17,035 women and 11,063 men (1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996). Incident cancer cases were ascertained by record linkage with the Swedish Cancer Registry until end of follow-up, January 1, 2012. Baseline serum levels of ApoA1 and ApoB were analyzed for the entire cohort and HDL-C and LDL-C levels in 5,281 participants. Hazard ratios, with 95% confidence interval, were calculated using Cox's proportional hazards analysis. In the entire cohort, none of the exposures were related to overall cancer risk (HR adj ApoA1 5 0.98, 95%CI: 0.95,1.01; HR adj ApoB 5 1.01, 95%CI: 0.98-1.04). Among men, ApoB was positively associated with cancer risk (HR adj ApoB 5 1.06, 95%CI: 1.01,1.10). Female breast cancer risk was inversely associated with ApoB (HR adj 5 0.92, 95%CI: 0.86,0.99). Among both genders, ApoA1 was inversely associated with lung cancer risk (HR adj 5 0.88, 95%CI: 0.80,0.97), whereas high ApoB increased lung cancer risk (HR adj 5 1.08, 95%CI: 0.99,1.18). Colorectal cancer risk was increased with high ApoB (HR adj 5 1.08, 95%CI: 1.01,1.16) among both genders. Apolipoprotein levels were not associated with prostate cancer incidence. Circulating levels of apolipoproteins are associated with overall cancer risk in men and across both genders with breast, lung and colorectal cancer risk. Validation of these findings may facilitate future primary prevention strategies for cancer.Cancer incidence has increased continuously over time forcing action to be taken at all stages of prevention. 1 In particular, improved primary prevention of cancer requires identification of risk markers, preferentially in drug and lifestyle modifiable systems. 1,2 Within the field of cardiovascular disease (CVD), development of risk markers has been