Risk analysis of species invasions links biology and economics, is increasingly mandated by international and national policies, and enables improved management of invasive species. Biological invasions proceed through a series of transition probabilities (i.e., introduction, establishment, spread, and impact), and each of these presents opportunities for management. Recent research advances have improved estimates of probability and associated uncertainty. Improvements have come from species-specific trait-based risk assessments (of estimates of introduction, establishment, spread, and impact probabilities, especially from pathways of commerce in living organisms), spatially explicit dispersal models (introduction and spread, especially from transportation pathways), and species distribution models (establishment, spread, and impact). Results of these forecasting models combined with improved and cheaper surveillance technologies and practices [e.g., environmental DNA (eDNA), drones, citizen science] enable more efficient management by focusing surveillance, prevention, eradication, and control efforts on the highest-risk species and locations. Bioeconomic models account for the interacting dynamics within and between ecological and economic systems, and allow decision makers to better understand the financial consequences of alternative management strategies. In general, recent research advances demonstrate that prevention is the policy with the greatest long-term net benefit. 454 Lodge et al.
Abstract-This study evaluated the sensitivity of juveniles of two freshwater unionid mussel species (Villosa iris [Lea] and Lampsilis fasciola [Rafinesque]) to un-ionized and total ammonia. Five concentrations of ammonium chloride were tested using 96-h staticrenewal toxicity tests at 12 and 20ЊC. Based on their respective mean 96-h lethal concentration to 50% (LC50s), V. iris (0.11 mg/ L NH3-N) was more sensitive than L. fasciola (0.26 mg/L NH3-N). At 96 h, significant differences in sensitivity to un-ionized ammonia between the two temperatures were not observed for either species. Comparison of LC50s reported for other aquatic organisms to the 96-h LC50s calculated for juvenile L. fasciola and V. iris shows these two mussel species to be among the most sensitive to un-ionized ammonia. Based on reported levels of un-ionized ammonia in the aquatic environment from anthropogenic sources, un-ionized ammonia may be an important limiting toxicological factor to freshwater mussel populations.
Tailwaters below hydropower dams can create desirable coldwater trout fisheries; however, a flow regime ideal for hydropower often presents challenges for management of the fishery. The Smith River tailwater (Henry County, VA) offers a self-sustaining brown trout fishery managed for trophy trout (! 406 mm), yet trophy-sized fish are rare. Slow growth and small size are likely caused by any one or a combination of thermal habitat, limited food resources, and/or physical habitat. To evaluate the potential for thermal habitat improvement, temperature changes resulting from alternative flows were assessed with a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with a water temperature model. Simulated temperatures from each flow scenario were assessed every 2 river kilometres over a 24 kilometre river section below the dam for occurrence of optimal growth temperatures, as well as compliance with Virginia Department of Environmental Quality hourly temperature change and daily maximum temperature standards. The occurrence of optimal growth temperatures increased up to 11.8% over existing conditions by releasing water in the morning, decreasing the duration of release, and not increasing baseflow. Incidences of hourly temperature changes greater than 2 C were reduced from 4% to 0-1.2% by non-peaking releases, increasing baseflow, morning releases, and decreasing the duration of release. Maximum temperature occurrence (>21 C) decreased from 1.3% to 0-0.1% by releasing flows daily to prevent elevated temperatures on non-generation days, increasing baseflow, increasing duration of release, and releasing in the morning rather than evening. Despite conflicting adjustments to best improve all thermal criteria concurrently, a 7-day/week, morning, one hour release regime was determined to improve all criteria throughout the tailwater compared to existing conditions.
Watershed and aquatic ecosystem management requires methods to predict and understand thermal impacts on stream habitat from urbanization. This study evaluates thermal effects of projected urbanization using a modeling framework and considers the biological implications to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) to assess changes in stream thermal habitat under altered stream‐ flow, shade, and channel width associated with low, medium, and high density urban developments in the Back Creek watershed (Roanoke County, Virginia). Flow alteration by the high density development scenario alone caused minimal heating of mean daily summer base flow (mean +0.1°C). However, when flow changes were modeled concurrently with reduced shade and increased channel width, mean daily temperature increased 1°C. Maximum daily temperatures exceeding the state standard (31°C) increased from 1.1 to 7.6 percent of the time using summer 2000 climatic conditions. Model results suggest that additional urban development will alter stream temperature, potentially limiting thermal habitat and shifting the fish community structure from intolerant to tolerant fish species in Back Creek. More research is needed on the sub‐lethal or chronic effects of increased stream temperature regimes on fish, particularly for those species already living in habitats near their upper limits.
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