Risk Analysis and Bioeconomics of Invasive Species to Inform Policy and Management

Abstract

Risk analysis of species invasions links biology and economics, is increasingly mandated by international and national policies, and enables improved management of invasive species. Biological invasions proceed through a series of transition probabilities (i.e., introduction, establishment, spread, and impact), and each of these presents opportunities for management. Recent research advances have improved estimates of probability and associated uncertainty. Improvements have come from species-specific trait-based risk assessments (of estimates of introduction, establishment, spread, and impact probabilities, especially from pathways of commerce in living organisms), spatially explicit dispersal models (introduction and spread, especially from transportation pathways), and species distribution models (establishment, spread, and impact). Results of these forecasting models combined with improved and cheaper surveillance technologies and practices [e.g., environmental DNA (eDNA), drones, citizen science] enable more efficient management by focusing surveillance, prevention, eradication, and control efforts on the highest-risk species and locations. Bioeconomic models account for the interacting dynamics within and between ecological and economic systems, and allow decision makers to better understand the financial consequences of alternative management strategies. In general, recent research advances demonstrate that prevention is the policy with the greatest long-term net benefit. 454 Lodge et al.

A concise guide to developing and using quantitative models in conservation management

“…To reduce these risks, authorities around the world have instituted risk assessments to allow or ban the import of species based on quantitative or semi-quantitative models predicting the likelihood that the species will establish selfsustaining wild populations and/or produce severe impacts (Blackburn et al, 2014;Kumschick & Richardson, 2013;Lodge et al, 2016 3. In New Zealand, efforts deployed by the government Department of Conservation to control invasive mammal populations during their "Battle for our Birds" campaign are directly informed by an ecological model (Elliott & Kemp, 2016).…”

Forecasting the economic impacts of two biofouling invaders on aquaculture production of green-lipped mussels Perna canaliculus in New Zealand

“…KEY WORDS: Bio-economic modelling · Marine invasive species · Pest risk analysis · Styela clava · Sabella spallanzanii inputs to these decisions (Leung et al 2002, Lodge et al 2016), but require quantitative information on the effects of invaders on primary industries, biodiversity, human health or other values at risk. Despite the large increase in research effort on biological invasions over the past 2 decades (Richardson & Pyšek 2008, Simberloff et al 2013, our knowledge of the impacts of marine invaders remains patchy and is often based on anecdote and supposition rather than empirical study (Katsanevakis et al 2014, Ojaveer et al 2015.…”

Agrilus mali Matsumara (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), a new invasive pest of wild apple in western China: DNA barcoding and life cycle

“…Another example is the gold‐spotted oak borer, Agrilus auroguttatus Schaeffer, is an invasive oak borer in California, but is native to southern Arizona of the USA (Lopez, Rugman‐Jones, Coleman, Hoddle, & Stouthamer, ). The establishment of introduced invasive species has become problematic on a large scale causing very high levels of ecological and economic (Lodge et al, ). Most invasive wood‐boring insects cause mortality of trees that results in direct or indirect effects on forest ecosystem processes (Gandhi & Herms, ; Herms & McCullough, ).…”

“…vasive species has become problematic on a large scale causing very high levels of ecological and economic (Lodge et al, 2016). Most invasive wood-boring insects cause mortality of trees that results in direct or indirect effects on forest ecosystem processes (Gandhi & Herms, 2010a;Herms & McCullough, 2014).…”