A growing body of evidence suggests that seismicity is seasonally modulated in a variety of tectonic environments. Identifying cyclic variations in seismicity improves our understanding of the physics of earthquake triggering. We explored seasonal modulation of crustal seismicity in San‐in district, southwest Japan, using a new method that adopts uncertainties derived from a probability‐based declustering procedure. We determined that semiannual variation in background seismicity rate, which increases in spring and autumn, is statistically significant from 1980 to 2017. The frequency distribution of large historic and modern earthquakes shows a similar pattern to recent background seismicity, suggesting that seismicity in San‐in district has shown seasonal variations for over 150 years. These observations can be explained by increasing pore pressure within fault zones, caused by precipitation in autumn and decreasing surface mass due to snow melting in spring.
We reconstructed the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity associated with the 2018 M w 5.6 northern Osaka earthquake, Japan, to discuss the source fault model of the mainshock rupture, the possible link between this rupture and known active faults, and subsequent crustal deformation. We first relocated the hypocenters listed in the earthquake catalog determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency using a double-difference relocation algorithm. We then searched for the earthquake waveforms that closely resembled those of the relocated hypocenters by applying a matched filtering technique to the continuous waveform data. The relocated hypocenters revealed two distinct planar alignments with different fault geometries. A combination of the relocated hypocenters and focal mechanisms suggests that the mainshock rupture initiated on a NNW-SSE-striking thrust fault, dipping ~ 45° to the east, with the rupture propagating to an adjacent sub-vertical ENE-WSW-striking strike-slip fault ~ 0.3 s after the initial mainshock rupture, resulting in the simultaneous propagation of dynamic rupture along the two faults. The strike-slip fault is oblique to the strike of the Arima-Takatsuki Fault, indicating that blind strike-slip faulting occurred. While the eastdipping thrust fault is located deeper than the modeled extent of the Uemachi Fault, a simple extrapolation of the near-surface geometry of the Uemachi fault partially overlaps the mainshock rupture area. Although it is unclear as to whether a blind thrust fault or a deep portion of the Uemachi Fault ruptured during this mainshock-aftershock sequence, a mainshock rupture would have transferred a static stress change of > 0.1 MPa to a portion of the eastdipping thrust fault system. Intensive aftershocks have persisted along the northern and southern edges of the source area, including moderate-magnitude events, whereas the seismicity in the central part of the source area has shown a rapid decay over time. Delayed triggered aftershocks were clearly identified along the northern extension of the rupture area. Because the background seismicity is predominant in this northern area, we interpret that aseismic deformation, such as cataclastic flow lubricated by crustal fluids, triggered this off-fault seismicity.
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