Abstract. Error-quantified, synoptic-scale relationships between chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and phytoplankton pigment groups at the sea surface are presented. A total of ten pigment groups were considered to represent three Phytoplankton Size Classes (PSCs, micro-, nano-and picoplankton) and seven Phytoplankton Functional Types (PFTs, i.e. diatoms, dinoflagellates, green algae, prymnesiophytes (haptophytes), pico-eukaryotes, prokaryotes and Prochlorococcus sp.). The observed relationships between Chl-a and PSCs/PFTs were well-defined at the global scale to show that a community shift of phytoplankton at the basin and global scales is reflected by a change in Chl-a of the total community. Thus, Chl-a of the total community can be used as an index of not only phytoplankton biomass but also of their community structure. Within these relationships, we also found nonmonotonic variations with Chl-a for certain pico-sized phytoplankton (pico-eukaryotes, Prokaryotes and Prochlorococcus sp.) and nano-sized phytoplankton (Green algae, prymnesiophytes). The relationships were quantified with a leastsquare fitting approach in order to enable an estimation of the PFTs from Chl-a where PFTs are expressed as a percentageCorrespondence to: T. Hirata (tahi@ees.hokudai.ac.jp) of the total Chl-a. The estimated uncertainty of the relationships depends on both PFT and Chl-a concentration. Maximum uncertainty of 31.8% was found for diatoms at Chla = 0.49 mg m −3 . However, the mean uncertainty of the relationships over all PFTs was 5.9% over the entire Chl-a range observed in situ (0.02 < Chl-a < 4.26 mg m −3 ). The relationships were applied to SeaWiFS satellite Chl-a data from 1998 to 2009 to show the global climatological fields of the surface distribution of PFTs. Results show that microplankton are present in the mid and high latitudes, constituting only ∼10.9% of the entire phytoplankton community in the mean field for 1998-2009, in which diatoms explain ∼7.5%. Nanoplankton are ubiquitous throughout the global surface oceans, except the subtropical gyres, constituting ∼45.5%, of which prymnesiophytes (haptophytes) are the major group explaining ∼31.7% while green algae contribute ∼13.9%. Picoplankton are dominant in the subtropical gyres, but constitute ∼43.6% globally, of which prokaryotes are the major group explaining ∼26.5% (Prochlorococcus sp. explaining 22.8%), while pico-eukaryotes explain ∼17.2% and are relatively abundant in the South Pacific. These results may be of use to evaluate global marine ecosystem models.

No abstract

Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean rather than on the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model-simulated changes in NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We use a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth system models with embedded marine ecosystem models and focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, NPP decreases in five out of the nine models over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40 %. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification leading to reduced phytoplankton growth. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduce NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while NPP in the remaining model changes by less than 0.5 %. While models consistently project increases NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but it is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their developmen