Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean rather than on the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model-simulated changes in NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We use a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth system models with embedded marine ecosystem models and focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, NPP decreases in five out of the nine models over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40 %. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification leading to reduced phytoplankton growth. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduce NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while NPP in the remaining model changes by less than 0.5 %. While models consistently project increases NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but it is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their developmen

Recent marine heat waves have caused devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. Substantial progress in understanding past and future changes in marine heat waves and their risks for marine ecosystems is needed to predict how marine systems, and the goods and services they provide, will evolve in the future.

Marine plastic debris floating on the ocean surface is a major environmental problem. However, its distribution in the ocean is poorly mapped, and most of the plastic waste estimated to have entered the ocean from land is unaccounted for. Better understanding of how plastic debris is transported from coastal and marine sources is crucial to quantify and close the global inventory of marine plastics, which in turn represents critical information for mitigation or policy strategies. At the same time, plastic is a unique tracer that provides an opportunity to learn more about the physics and dynamics of our ocean across multiple scales, from the Ekman convergence in basin-scale gyres to individual waves in the surfzone. In this review, we comprehensively discuss what is known about the different processes that govern the transport of floating marine plastic debris in both the open ocean and the coastal zones, based on the published literature and referring to insights from neighbouring fields such as oil spill dispersion, marine safety recovery, plankton connectivity, and others. We discuss how measurements of marine plastics (both in situ and in the laboratory), remote sensing, and numerical simulations can elucidate these processes and their interactions across spatio-temporal scales. Environ. Res. Lett. 15 (2020) 023003 E van Sebille et al Environ. Res. Lett. 15 (2020) 023003 E van Sebille et al References Acha E M, Mianzan H W, Iribarne O, Gagliardini D A, Lasta C and Daleo P 2003 The role of the Rı́o de la Plata bottom salinity front in accumulating debris Mar. Pollut. Bull. 46 197-202 Acha E M, Piola A, Iribarne O and Mianzan H 2015 Ecological Processes at Marine Fronts: Oases in the Ocean (Berlin: Springer) Aliani S and Molcard A 2003 Hitch-hiking on floating marine debris: macrobenthic species in the Western Mediterranean Sea Hydrobiologia 503 59-67 Allen J 1985 Principles of Physical Sedimentology (Berlin: Springer) Alpers W 1985 Theory of radar imaging of internal waves Nature 314 245-7 Alsina J M and Cáceres I 2011 Sediment suspension events in the inner surf and swash zone. Measurements in large-scale and high-energy wave conditions Coast. Eng. 58

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—periods of extremely high ocean temperatures in specific regions—have occurred in all of Earth’s ocean basins over the past two decades, with severe negative impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems. However, for most individual MHWs, it is unclear to what extent they have been altered by human-induced climate change. We show that the occurrence probabilities of the duration, intensity, and cumulative intensity of most documented, large, and impactful MHWs have increased more than 20-fold as a result of anthropogenic climate change. MHWs that occurred only once every hundreds to thousands of years in the preindustrial climate are projected to become decadal to centennial events under 1.5°C warming conditions and annual to decadal events under 3°C warming conditions. Thus, ambitious climate targets are indispensable to reduce the risks of substantial MHW impacts.

International audienc

Accurate representation of the remineralization of sinking organic matter is crucial for reliable projections of the marine carbon cycle. Both water temperature and oxygen concentration are thought to influence remineralization rates, but limited data constraints have caused disagreement concerning the degree of these influences. We analyze a compilation of particulate organic carbon (POC) flux measurements from 19 globally distributed sites. Our results indicate that the attenuation of the flux of particulate organic matter depends on temperature with a Q10 between 1.5 and 2.01, and on oxygen described by a half‐saturation constant between 4 and 12 μmol/L. We assess the impact of the temperature and oxygen dependence in the biogeochemistry model Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry, and Lower Trophics, coupled to Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model ESM2M. The new remineralization parameterization results in shallower remineralization in the low latitudes but deeper remineralization in the high latitudes, redistributing POC flux toward the poles. It also decreases the volume of the oxygen minimum zones, partly addressing a long‐standing bias in global climate models. Extrapolating temperature‐dependent remineralization rates to the surface (i.e., beyond the depth range of POC flux data) resulted in rapid recycling and excessive surface nutrients. Surface nutrients could be ameliorated by reducing near‐surface rates in a manner consistent with bacterial colonization, suggesting the need for improved remineralization constraints within the euphotic zone. The temperature and oxygen dependence cause an additional 10% decrease in global POC flux at 500 m depth, but no significant change in global POC flux at 2000 m under the RCP8.5 future projection.

Abstract. Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between −1 and −12 %. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warminginduced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (presentday) distribution of diatoms (between 11-94 % in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6-3.8 times higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes.

This contribution describes the ocean biogeochemical component of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 4.1 (GFDL-ESM4.1), assesses GFDL-ESM4.1's capacity to capture observed ocean biogeochemical patterns, and documents its response to increasing atmospheric CO 2. Notable differences relative to the previous generation of GFDL ESM's include enhanced resolution of plankton food web dynamics, refined particle remineralization, and a larger number of exchanges of nutrients across Earth system components. During model spin-up, the carbon drift rapidly fell below the 10 Pg C per century equilibration criterion established by the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). Simulations robustly captured large-scale observed nutrient distributions, plankton dynamics, and characteristics of the biological pump. The model overexpressed phosphate limitation and open ocean hypoxia in some areas but still yielded realistic surface and deep carbon system properties, including cumulative carbon uptake since preindustrial times and over the last decades that is consistent with observation-based estimates. The model's response to the direct and radiative effects of a 200% atmospheric CO 2 increase from preindustrial conditions (i.e., years 101-120 of a 1% CO 2 yr −1 simulation) included (a) a weakened, shoaling organic carbon pump leading to a 38% reduction in the sinking flux at 2,000 m; (b) a two-thirds reduction in the calcium carbonate pump that nonetheless generated only weak calcite compensation on century timescales ; and, in contrast to previous GFDL ESMs, (c) a moderate reduction in global net primary production that was amplified at higher trophic levels. We conclude with a discussion of model limitations and priority developments. Plain Language Summary This paper describes and evaluates the ocean biogeochemical component of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 4.1 (GFDL-ESM4.1). GFDL-ESM4.1 was developed to study the past, present, and future evolution of the Earth system under scenarios for natural and anthropogenic drivers of Earth system change, including greenhouse gases and aerosols. The response of the ocean's vast carbon and heat reservoirs to accumulating greenhouse gases greatly reduces their atmospheric and terrestrial impacts, but also puts ocean environments and the marine resources they support at risk. Relative to previous models, GFDL-ESM4.1 improves the representation of (a) ocean food webs connecting plankton and fish; (b) biological processes influencing the sequestration of carbon in the deep ocean; and (c) land-atmosphere-ocean nutrient exchanges. While simulations have biases, they capture many critical aspects of the global ocean carbon cycle and ocean ecosystem, including the observed uptake of anthropogenic carbon over the last~150 yr. Projections suggest that continued CO 2 increases could significantly decrease ocean productivity and the ocean's capacity to sequester atmospheric carbon.