Abstract. We have coupled an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM) to the Glacial Systems Model (GSM) using the LCice 1.0 coupler. The coupling scheme is flexible enough to enable asynchronous coupling between any glacial cycle ice sheet model and (with some code work) any Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). This coupling includes a number of interactions between ice sheets and climate that are often neglected: dynamic meltwater runoff routing, novel downscaling for precipitation that corrects orographic forcing to the higher resolution ice sheet grid (“advective precipitation”), dynamic vertical temperature gradient, and ocean temperatures for sub-shelf melt. The sensitivity of the coupled model with respect to the selected parameterizations and coupling schemes is investigated. Each new coupling feature is shown to have a significant impact on ice sheet evolution. An ensemble of runs is used to explore the behaviour of the coupled model over a set of 2000 parameter vectors using present-day (PD) initial and boundary conditions. The ensemble of coupled model runs is compared against PD reanalysis data for atmosphere (2 m temperature, precipitation, jet stream, and Rossby number of jet), ocean (sea ice and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – AMOC), and Northern Hemisphere ice sheet thickness and extent. The parameter vectors are then narrowed by rejecting model runs (1700 CE to present) with regional land ice volume changes beyond an acceptance range. The selected subset forms the basis for ongoing work to explore the spatial–temporal phase space of the last two glacial cycles.
Abstract. We present an ensemble of last glacial inception (LGI) simulations for the Northern Hemisphere that captures a significant fraction of inferred ice volume changes within proxy uncertainties. This ensemble was performed with LCice 1.0, a coupled ice sheet and climate model, varying parameters of both climate and ice sheet components, as well as the coupling between them. Certain characteristics of the spatiotemporal pattern of ice growth and subsequent retreat in both North America (NA) and Eurasia (EA) are sensitive to parameter changes while others are not. We find that the initial inception of ice over NA and EA is best characterized by the nucleation of ice at high-latitude and high-elevation sites. Subsequent spreading and merger along with large-scale conversion of snowfields dominate in different sectors. The latter plays an important role in the merging of eastern and western ice regions in NA. The inception peak ice volume in the ensemble occurs approximately at 111 ka and therefore lags the summer 60∘ N insolation minimum by more than 3 kyr. Ice volumes consistently peak earlier over EA than NA. The inception peak in North America is characterized by a merged Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheet, with the Davis Strait covered in ice in ∼80 % of simulations. Ice also bridges Greenland and Iceland in all runs by 114 ka and therefore blocks the Denmark Strait. This latter feature would thereby divert the East Greenland Current and Denmark Strait overflow with a potentially significant impact on ocean circulation. The Eurasian ice sheet at its inception peak varies across ensemble runs between a continuous ice sheet and multiple smaller ice caps. In both continents, the colder high latitudes (i.e. Ellesmere and Svalbard) tend to grow ice through the entire simulation (to 102 ka), while lower latitudes lose ice after ∼110 ka. We find temperature decreases over the initial phases of the inception lead to the expansion of NA ice sheet area and that subsequent precipitation increases contribute to its thickening. EA ice sheet area also expands with decreasing temperatures, but sea ice limits any increases in precipitation, leading to an earlier retreat away from the EA maximum ice sheet volume. We also examine the extent to which the capture of both LGI ice growth and retreat constrains the coupled ice–climate model sensitivity to changing atmospheric pCO2. The 55-member sub-ensemble that meets our criteria for “acceptable” ice growth and retreat has an equilibrium climate sensitivity lower bound that is 0.3 ∘C higher than that of the full ensemble. This suggests some potential value of fully coupled ice–climate modelling of the last glacial inception to constrain future climate change.
Abstract. We present an ensemble of Last Glacial Inception (LGI) simulations for the Northern Hemisphere that largely captures inferred ice volume changes within proxy uncertainties. This ensemble was performed with LCice 1.0, a coupled ice sheet and climate model, varying parameters of both climate and ice sheet components, as well as the coupling between them. Certain characteristics of the spatio-temporal pattern of ice growth and subsequent retreat in both North America (NA) and Eurasia (EA) are sensitive to parameter changes, especially with respect to regional rates of ice growth and retreat. We find that the initial inception of ice over NA and EA is best characterized by the nucleation of ice at high latitude and high elevation sites. Subsequent spreading and merger along with large-scale conversion of snow fields dominate in different sectors. The latter plays an important role in the merging of eastern and western ice regions in NA. The inception peak ice volume in the ensemble occurs approximately at 111 ka and therefore lags the summer 60° N insolation minimum by more than 3 kyr. Ice volumes consistently peak earlier over EA than NA. The inception peak in North America is characterized by a merged Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheet, with Davis Strait covered in ice in 80 % of simulations. Ice also bridges Greenland and Iceland in all runs by 114 ka and therefore blocks Denmark Strait. This latter feature would thereby divert the East Greenland Current and Denmark Strait overflow and thereby potentially have a significant impact on ocean circulation. The Eurasian ice sheet at its inception peak varies across ensemble runs between a continuous ice sheet to multiple smaller ice caps. In both continents, the colder high latitudes (Ellsmere and Svalbard) tend to grow ice through the entire simulation (to 102 ka), while lower latitudes lose ice after 110 ka. We find temperature decreases over the initial phases of the inception lead to the expansion of NA ice sheet area, and that subsequent precipitation increases contribute to its thickening. EA ice sheet area also expands with decreasing temperatures, but sea ice limits any increases in precipitation, leading to an earlier retreat away from the EA maximum ice sheet volume. We also examine the extent to which the capture of both LGI ice growth and retreat constrains the coupled ice/climate model sensitivity to changing atmospheric pCO2. For a standard transient climate response experiment (1 % increase in pCO2 until doubled), warming ranges between 0.6–2.0 °C for our initial set of 500 simulations without LGI constraint. The warming is reduced to 0.7–1.4 °C for the 55 member ensemble that captures both LGI ice growth and retreat. This therefore underlines the potential value of fully coupled ice/climate modelling of last glacial inception to constrain future climate change.
<p>What determines the character of glacial inceptions? Does the spatio-temporal pattern of ice nucleation and expansion vary much between Late Pleistocene glacial inceptions? According to various benthic del18O stacks, the MIS 7 interglacial was the most anomalous in character of the last 4 interglacials. Key differences include a weaker interglacial state and an initial fast inception interrupted by a return to a similar and extended interglacial state. These anomalies of MIS 7 along with temporal proximity arguably make the last two glacial inceptions the best test case for addressing our opening questions. As part of a larger project to generate and analyze a data-constrained ensemble of fully coupled ice/climate transient simulations for the last two complete glacial cycles, herein we present initial results comparing the last two glacial inceptions (MIS 7 and 5d). We are using a new version of the fully coupled ice/climate model LCice. LCice now simulates all 4 paleo ice sheet complexes with hybrid shallow-shelf and shallow-ice physics. It has already been shown to capture northern hemispheric ice sheet growth and subsequent retreat consistent with inferences from global mean sea level proxies (Bahadory et al, 2019). Orbital and greenhouse gas changes are the only external forcings applied to the model. A 300 member ensemble probes parametric uncertainties in both the 3D Glacial Systems Model and LoveClim (Atmosphere/Ocean/Vegetation) components of LCice. Our presentation will compare the evolution and relative phasing of all 4 paleo ice sheets, and associated changes in the rest of the modelled climate system.</p>
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.