ABSTRACT. The Lake Imandra watershed is located in one of the most developed regions in the Arctic-the Kola Peninsula of Russia. Approximately 300 000 people live on the roughly 27 000 km 2 watershed, making it one of the most densely populated areas of the Arctic. Most of the people are involved in large-scale mineral extraction and processing and the infrastructure needed to support this industry. This paper reports the results of a pilot project staged for the Lake Imandra watershed that has put human dynamics within the framework of ecosystem change to integrate available information and formulate conceptual models of likely future scenarios. The observation period is one of both rapid economic growth and human expansion, with an overall economic decline in the past decade. We are applying the Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) approach to integrate information, identify information gaps, generate likely future scenarios, and link scientific findings to the decision-making process. We found an increasingly vulnerable human population in varying states of awareness about their local environment and fully cognizant of their economic troubles, with many determined to attempt maintenance of relatively high population densities in the near future even as many residents of northern Russia migrate south. A series of workshops have involved the citizens and local decision makers in an attempt to tap their knowledge of the region and to increase their awareness about the linkages between the socioeconomic and ecological components.Key words: watershed analysis, Kola, ecological economics, adaptive management, development scenarios RÉSUMÉ. Le bassin hydrographique du lac Imandra est situé dans l'une des régions les plus développées de l'Arctique, soit la presqu'île de Kola, en Russie. Près de 300 000 personnes vivent dans la zone du bassin qui couvre environ 27 000 km 2 , ce qui en fait l'une des régions les plus peuplées de l'Arctique. La plupart des habitants travaillent dans l'extraction et le traitement miniers à grande échelle ainsi que dans l'infrastructure qui soutient cette industrie. Le présent article rapporte les résultats d'un projet pilote mis sur pied pour le bassin du lac Imandra, projet qui a placé la dynamique humaine dans le cadre du changement des écosystèmes, afin d'intégrer l'information disponible et de formuler des modèles conceptuels de scénarios probables dans l'avenir. La période d'observation en est une à la fois de croissance économique et d'expansion démographique rapides, suivie d'un déclin général au cours de la dernière décennie. On a recours à la méthode d'évaluation participative intégrée (EPI) pour intégrer l'information, y dégager des lacunes, générer des scénarios probables dans l'avenir et établir un lien entre résultats de la recherche et processus décisionnel. On a trouvé qu'il y avait une population humaine de plus en plus vulnérable qui était sensibilisée à divers degrés aux problèmes locaux de l'environnement et pleinement consciente des difficultés économiques, popula...
Recent federal documents devoted to the Arctic zone economic development highlighted eight basic areas-future innovative centers of regional development. Totally 150 investment projects are planned by 2030, where 48% are designated for mineral resources extraction, 16%-for transport development, 7%-for geological survey, 2%-for environment safety protection etc. At the same time, these ambitious plans should meet green economy goals. This means that territorial planning will have to consider at least three spatially differentiated issues: Socio-economic, ecological and environmental (nature hazards, climatic changes etc.). Thus, the initial stage of territorial planning for economic development needs evaluation of different spatial combinations of these issues. This research presents an algorithm for evaluation of joint impact of basic regional components, characterizing "nature-population-economy" interrelations in order to reveal their spatial differences and demonstrate options and risks for future sustainable development of the Russian Arctic. Basic research methods included system analysis with GIS tools. Accumulated data were arranged in three blocks which included principle regional factors which control sustainable development. In order to find different patterns of sustainability provided by these factors pair assessments of ecological/economic, environmental/economic and ecological/environmental data was done. Independent variable-environmental factors offered different spatial natural patterns either promoting or hampering economic development. It was impossible to assess jointly all three blocks data because the discussed framework of regional sustainability factors attributed to spatial regional system, which demonstrated its panarchy character. Ranking results were visualized in a map where the selected pair groups were shown for each basic territory of advanced development. Visualization of proportional correlation of social, economic and ecological factors was achieved using color triangle method (RGB).
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