The paper discusses the long-term prospects for the sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus) fishery in the Exclusive Economic Zone and the territorial sea of Russia in the 26th ICES subdivision of the Baltic Sea under various scenarios of the situation, depending on the age composition of the sprat, its abundance and biomass, and the impact of cod predation. The analysis of the main trends of oceanographic processes associated with the change in the average annual temperature, salinity and oxygen concentrations in the surface and near-bottom layers of the sea is analyzed. The upper and lower limits of the possible catch of sprat by domestic fishing organizations up to 2025 are determined, as well as the most probable scenario due to the changing abiotic factors. Prognostic assessments of the possible capacity of domestic Baltic sprat catch can serve as reference points for fishery organizations in the planning of fishing loads, including within the task of achieving a balance between fishing capacities and raw materials base for the next few years .
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