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The aim of this article: assess the impact of abiotic conditions on aquatic biological resources (sprat, herring, cod) of the Baltic Sea. The need for this study is due to the pronounced climate variability in the modern period. There is an increased role of the impact of environmental conditions on commercial fish species and, often, unfavorable for their spawning, survival of offspring, feeding, etc. Methods used: carried out an integrated ecosystem analysis using the method of principal components in the R software environment. To detect statistically significant levels of changes in the time series of principal components, the STARS program, represented by an Excel add-in, was used. For the analysis of abiotic conditions, long-term series of air temperature, data from regular oceanological observations at a monitoring station were used. Since the stocks of commercial fish species in the Baltic Sea are transboundary, the values of their spawning biomass and biological parameters of populations were analyzed according to the data ofthe ICES Working Groups. Novelty: this is the first time that such an analysis for a 30-year period adapted to the Russian water area in SD ICES 26 has been carried out. Result: an integrated analysis of the abiotic and biotic components of the sea over the past three decades showed «mesoscale» shifts in 2002 and 2013. The direct and indirect impact of climate on the fish stocks of the Baltic Sea was an important unfavorable factor determining the current state, size and weight parameters, reproductive capacity and stocks dynamics. The most pronounced negative impact of environmental factors was noted for the stock of cod. Practical significance: the results of the analysis carried out are necessary when predicting the catch of aquatic biological resources in the Baltic Sea for the short and long term, for making management decisions on the regulation of fishing in terms of understanding the risks in the current conditions of climate change.
The aim of this article: assess the impact of abiotic conditions on aquatic biological resources (sprat, herring, cod) of the Baltic Sea. The need for this study is due to the pronounced climate variability in the modern period. There is an increased role of the impact of environmental conditions on commercial fish species and, often, unfavorable for their spawning, survival of offspring, feeding, etc. Methods used: carried out an integrated ecosystem analysis using the method of principal components in the R software environment. To detect statistically significant levels of changes in the time series of principal components, the STARS program, represented by an Excel add-in, was used. For the analysis of abiotic conditions, long-term series of air temperature, data from regular oceanological observations at a monitoring station were used. Since the stocks of commercial fish species in the Baltic Sea are transboundary, the values of their spawning biomass and biological parameters of populations were analyzed according to the data ofthe ICES Working Groups. Novelty: this is the first time that such an analysis for a 30-year period adapted to the Russian water area in SD ICES 26 has been carried out. Result: an integrated analysis of the abiotic and biotic components of the sea over the past three decades showed «mesoscale» shifts in 2002 and 2013. The direct and indirect impact of climate on the fish stocks of the Baltic Sea was an important unfavorable factor determining the current state, size and weight parameters, reproductive capacity and stocks dynamics. The most pronounced negative impact of environmental factors was noted for the stock of cod. Practical significance: the results of the analysis carried out are necessary when predicting the catch of aquatic biological resources in the Baltic Sea for the short and long term, for making management decisions on the regulation of fishing in terms of understanding the risks in the current conditions of climate change.
The aim of this article: analysis of information and software for forecasting of the Baltic Sea sprat stock Sprattus sprattus balticus at 22–32 ICES subdivisions in the context of the suspension of Russia’s activities in the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES).Methods used: The data of estimates of sprat abundance and biomass by hydroacoustic methods, commercial and biostatistical characteristics of the species were used to assess the stock and predict its catch in the Baltic Sea. Estimation of the sprat stock was carried out using the traditional method of virtual population analysis (VPA) adjusted according to the method of extended survival analysis (XSA) using the internationally approved VPA module software within the framework of ICES and the R software environment. The recruitment calibration program RCT3 (Recruitment calibration) was used for the abundance of recruitment (age 1 year) according to XSA and forecast. A multivariate short-term forecast was carried out at different levels of development of the total allowable catch (TAC) under the MFDP program (Multi Fleet Deterministic Projection). As an alternative, the domestic software «KAFKA» was tested.Novelty: for the first time, estimates of the sprat stock were made in the conditions of limited access of Russian specialists to primary data in ICES in full.Result: modern methodological and informational support of scientific research in the Baltic Sea in the conditions of the suspension of the activities of Russian experts in ICES makes it possible to obtain information in the minimum necessary amount for assessing the stock of sprat and predicting its catch. Modeling with the «KAFKA» software showed satisfactory results.Practical significance: The current level of information support for forecasting the state of the stock and catch of sprat in the Baltic Sea will allow solving a complex of problems of managing this resource in modern conditions.
The aim of this article: to assess the condition and level of exploitation of commercial fish species in the Russian parts of the Baltic Sea (including the Gulf of Finland), the Curonian and Kaliningrad (Vistula) Lagoons.Methods used: the stocks of commercial fish species in the Baltic Sea and its bays are transboundary. For several decades, as part of the international regulation of fisheries in the Baltic Sea, scientific cooperation has been carried out between the countries of the European Union and the Russian Federation at the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). During the period from 1992 to the present, AtlantNIRO has organized and carried out a significant amount of comprehensive research work in the Baltic Sea. In total, more than 70 hydroacoustic, bottom and environmental surveys were completed. Long-term (more than 60 years) studies of aquatic biological resources of commercial fish species are also carried out in the Curonian and Kaliningrad (Vistula) Lagoons. For many years, scientific cooperation has been carried out on the study of the bays with the Lithuanian and Polish republics, respectively.Novelty: in the modern period, analysis of research on the state and exploitation of stocks of commercial fish species in the Russian part of the Baltic is carried out for the first time.Result: the volume of production of aquatic biological resources (ABR) in the Baltic Sea has currently reached an “extreme high point”, and a slight decrease should be expected in the near future. In the Curonian and Kaliningrad (Vistula) Lagoons, the condition of the stocks of the main commercial fish is satisfactory, which allows for stable production of aquatic fish.Practical significance: in modern conditions, information on the state of fish stocks in the region will allow solving problems of managing these resources, including planning for the near future the possible volumes of their production by fishing organizations.
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